Doherty at the Close. 6.15.2012

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In Europe, the Stoxx Europe gained 1% on Friday, putting the European benchmark into positive territory for the entire week. Asian markets also finished higher, up 0.5%, with the Nikkei average finishing barely above zero at 0.1%.

Facebook (FB) finally finished up 6.04% as they posted their first back to back gains since their IPO. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 6.04% and International Business Machines (IBM) finished up 2.09% to lead the DOW gains. Stocks opened higher even as economic data showed that customers felt less upbeat about the economy than at the start of the month than in May. IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) jumped 4.73% as they won the bidding process to buy the London Metal Exchange. Finally, AIG rose 1.42% after the insurer said that it reduced outstanding support from the US government by $152 billion.

Happy Friday everyone and have a great weekend!

Thomas Doherty is an undergraduate at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Halftime Report 6.15.2012

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WTI crude futures were down 7 cents ,-0.08%, to $83.84 and gold futures were up $8.80 ,.54%, to $1,628.40.

Moody’s Investor Service Downgraded Nokia Corp.’s (NOK) credit rating to Baa3, a junk status, due to worse than expected earnings. Nokia was downgraded by Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor’s in April. Nokia was trading at $2.47, up 12 cents ,5.11%.

American International Group (AIG) rose .84% after reducing its support from the U.S. government. The U.S. treasury still owns $30 billion of AIG’s common stock.

Gamestop (MVIS) fell -22.74% after they reported their sales of videogame hardware, software and accessories dropped -28% from a year ago. This fall is linked to the loss KOTM and Andrew mentioned on the blog and Bloomberg TV, respectively. Like Microsoft and Sony, Gamestop is faltering due to lower product sales as gamers await new systems to buy and delay their purchases until a later time.

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC’s (RBS) shares rose 8.12% after yesterday’s speech by Chancelor George Osborne that the Bank of England is preparing to support markets if needed after Sunday’s Greek presidential election.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Trade of the Day (FXE) 6.15.2012

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Chicago Pit Trading CBOETrade of the Day: Buying FXE June 22nd 125-126 Strangle for $1.88

Risk: $188 per 1 lot

Reward: Unlimited 

Chart: Bearish overall, picked up a few buyers at the $122 level.

Notes: I am playing movement in the FXE before the Greek elections and since the stock has stagnant lately, it is due for a major rip your face off movement, but I’m not sure in which direction.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  Thankfully I managed this trade will and got out of it for $1.20.  Moving to the next trade.  


Movers and Shakers (PHM) 6.15.2012

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PHM’s 52-week trading range was between $8.73 and $8.94. Last quarter they announced an EPS of negative 48 cents and a negative profit margin of -1.32%.

PulteGroup, Inc. is a homebuilder large-scale homebuilder in the United States. They provide various types of housing, ranging from single-family homes to townhomes and condominiums. As, of January 1, 2012, the company had delivered around 600,000 homes in 29 states. As well as acting as a homebuilder, PulteGroup also performs mortgage bank, architectural, and title operations. PulteGroup is based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Morning Rage 6.15.2012

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The biggest gainer, ironically after 2 double digit losses in a row, is Espirit gaining almost 10%. Despite all the management problems of late CLSA upgraded the
stock to buy but cut its target price by 26%, and stated “we would not recommend it a core holding for investors.”

European shares are on the rise at the moment, with banks leading the charge with expectation that central banks will intervene to prevent a Greek exit from the Euro. The FTSE is up .8%, Germany’s Dax is up 1% and France’s CAC-40 is up 1.6%.

I do not believe that Greece will exit the Euro, their currency would be exceedingly weak and make economic recovery unnecessarily rough. I think Greek Banks will surge Monday, similar to bank of Greece yesterday which jumped 31% and Spanish banks on Monday. The election is not a fix but a relief to a worry. It has made the markets quite entertaining though.

We are showing all commodities up this morning; gold, silver, crude and natural.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Doherty at the Close 6.14.2012

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 155.53 points, or 1.2%, to $12,651.91. Blue chips rose after labor and inflation data sparked speculation that the Fed Reserve would add quantitative easing. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index advanced 14.22 points, or 1.1%, to $1,329.10. Telecommunications and energy companies paced advances across all of the index’s 10 sectors.

The number of Americans making initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose, while the prior week’s figure was revised higher. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices fell in May, in line with expectations, as plunging gasoline costs offset higher rents and medical-care prices. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.2% from April, also matching economists’ forecasts.

Yields on Spanish 10 year bonds surged near 7%, an all time euro high, after Spain was downgraded by Moody Investors.
Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Spanish government bonds surged to 6.958%, according to electronic trading platform Tradeweb, after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Spain’s debt three notches to the brink of junk territory late Wednesday.

Asian markets were broadly lower after the downgrade of Spain. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average lost 0.2% and China’s Shanghai Composite gave up 1%. Crude-oil futures added 1.6% to settle at $83.91. Gold futures edged up 30 cents, or less than 0.1%, to finish at $1618.40.

In other corporate news, U.S.-listed shares of Finland’s Nokia (NOK) dropped 16% after the handset maker announced a shake-up of management and said it would cut an additional 10,000 jobs by the end of next year as it deals with increased competition. Cabot Oil & Gas jumped 8.6%, alongside a rally in natural gas prices after U.S. inventories of the fuel rose less than expected, suggesting improved demand.

Thomas Doherty is an undergraduate at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Halftime Report 6.14.2012

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Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 121.00 points (.97%) to 12550.00, S&P 500 futures rose to 1320.25, up 11.50 points (.88%), and NASDAQ futures rose 15.00 points (.59%) to 2537.50.

WTI crude futures rallied $1.10 to 83.72 and gold futures traded sideways, gaining 10 cents and traded at $1619.50.

Energy stocks moved higher as crude rallied., Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) rose 1.02% and Chevron (CVX) rose 1.07%.

Home Depot rose 2.26%, the largest increase in the Dow.

Nokia (NOK) dropped over 13% after the management decided to cut 10,000 jobs and shut down factories by the end of next year due to increased competition.

The morning wrapped up with a record breaking 30-Yeat Treasury auction. The treasury sold $13 billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of 2.72%, down from April’s 3.06% auction outcome. The Bid to cover also decreased at today’s auction with a bid to cover ratio of 2.4, down from 2.73 in April.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Trade of the Day (KBH) 6.14.2012

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Chart Candlesticks Options EminiTrade of the Day : (KBH) Selling the KBH Jul 7-6 Put Spread for $0.27

Risk : $73 per 1 Lot

Reward: $27 per 1 Lot

Bearish to nuetral outlook

Paper sold 13,000 Jul7 7 puts

UPDATE 6.27.2012  With the stock rallying higher, this Put Spread is worth $.06.  Leaving this trade on and moving to the next trade.

UPDATE 7.2.2012 This Spread is worth $.04, but I will be leaving it on until expiration. 

Movers and Shakers (AEM) 6.14.2012

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Limited After reducing its shares in Rubicon Minerals (RBY), due to its lack of interest in last year’s investment in Runicon’s Red Lake Camp in Ontario. Last year Rubicon invested $70 million in this area as a long term investment, only to have a substantial portion sold off this year. Rubicon’s interest in this project have been mostly profitable and in line with future goals, however, we are not sure why Agnico Eagle is reducing ownership in the company. Some speculate that Angnico-Eagle is having internal conflicts that played a role in this transfer of ownership, however Angnico is not in a bad position financially, In my opinion, they are just restructuring their strategy.

This morning gold futures were trading at $1616.50, down $2.90 (-0.18%).

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana