Yes, we had a rally today, but what sparked it? Was it the belief off selling in May and going away. Or was it all about the average at best ISM reading this morning. I am using today’s high, 1411.75 in the ES futures as a gage or get short.

I continue to think that we are in a trading range, 1335-1420 and until we get that breakout, we will trade sideways. After the bell, we got mixed results as TRIP, Tripadvisor raged higher, but Opentable, OPEN, and BRCM were both off. Taking away that today was the first day of the month, I see more headwinds and think we head lower this month and then get a huge summer rally. Have a great night traders.

Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if HLF closes at $60.70 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if HLF closes above $60.70 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread can be worth $2.50 minus the Price I sold it for $.70 or a total of $1.80.

UPDATE 5.2.2012  With HLF selling off once again today, this spread is decreasing in value by the day.  It is currently worth $.40, but I will leave this trade on, because I do not think HLF can rally through the $60 level between now and May expiration.  

UPDATE 5.3.2012  With this spread currently worth $.10, I am trying to buy it back and take the trade off, because even though the stock is very weak I am not willing to risk $2.40 to make an extra trade for $.10.  Another winner at KOTM

UPDATE 5.4.2012  I closed this trade out this trade for $.10, another winner and time to move on to the next trade.

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– Targa Resources (TRGP) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral: Robert W. Baird

– Apollo Commercial Real Estate (ARI) downgraded to Hold from Buy: Stifel Nicolaus

– Herbalife (HLF) price target to $86 from $83: Caris & Company

– Simon Properties (SPG) price target to $162 from $152: Imperial Capital

On the flip side, Apple (AAPL) had a rough go, falling 3.15% to $584 per share. AAPL has fallen straight down since opening at $610 after reporting a tremendous quarter on the 24th. In premarket trade, AAPL is higher by 0.6%. 

Natural Gas has been on a tear since hitting lows around $1.910. Futures are currently trading at $2.301, up 0.7% on the session. UNG, an ETF that tracks Natural Gas, is up 9% over the past 5 days. But, UNG is down 8.7% over the past month, and down 36% year-to-date. I wouldn’t get too caught up in the current move – Nat Gas’ trend is definitely lower.

At 10 a.m. ET today, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. At 10:30 ET, data on Construction Spending will come out. This is all setting the market up for Friday’s payrolls report.

Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if MNST closes at $75 by May 18, 2012 and at $74.50 by June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if MNST closes at $75 by May 18, 2012 and above $75 by June 15, 2012.  This trade is a little more complicated than described above.  As I looked at the volatility I think I will make money on this trade as long as MNST stays within a $9 range within the next couple of weeks.

UPDATE 5.1.2012  Even though MNST has sold off more than $10 since I put this trade on, this spread is currently worth $.75.  I will leave it on for more potential upside knowing that the most I can lose on this spread is the amount I paid for it.

UPDATE 5.2.012  With a rally in MNST over the last 2 days and time on my side, this trade is currently worth $.90, but since I defined my risk vs reward, I will leave this trade for more upside potential.  

UPDATE 5.3.2012  With time on my side, this spread is still worth $.75 and I will continue to leave it on.

UPDATE 5.4.2012  With time on my side, this spread is still worth $.75 and I will continue to leave it on.

UPDATE 5.7.2012  With MNST hanging out arounf this $68 level, this is good for my trade and this spread is currently worth $1.10 and good for a double so far.   

UPDATE 5.10.2012  With a HUGE POP in MNST on earnings, this Spread has not got a triple and is currently worth $1.50.  I will leave this trade on until May expires and play with time on my side.  

UPDATE 5.11.2012  Another trade when time is on my side, I will leave this trade for 5 more days in order to try to squeeze more money out of this trade.

UPDATE 5.14.2012  I will leave this position on until at least Friday, but it is currently worth $1.60 for a triple

UPDATE 5.15.2012  A nice perfect landing at $74.95 would be perfect for this trade.  The closer MNST is to $75, the more this trade will be work. 

UPDATE 5.16.2012  This trade will be properly hedged, but not until Friday when the May options expire to squeeze more money out of this trade.

UPDATE 5.21.2012  The May 75 Puts that I was short tuned into LONG stock versus the June 75 Puts I was long, creating a LONG Call Strategy.  These Calls are worth $1 today, and I hedged them by selling stock today.  

UPDATE 5.22.2012  As I was frustrated with any LONG positions, when the stock was trading $70.50 I sold my Calls off at $1.25.  Taking profits and moving on.

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