Salesforce reports today after the bell . Quarterly earnings (Q4E) $.40 and Quarterly revenue (Q4E) $524M. Salesforce has a PEG of 3.7 and Forward PE of around $85. At this price I think CRM might be overvalued. SHLD ripped 10$ on reporting a $2.5 billion loss, hmmm.

Unusual Options Activity:

We saw a customer buying SNE JULY 22 and 23 Calls and sold the $16 Puts. In my opinion, this is very bullish activity.SNE is trading 9.5x average volume. Andrew Keene bought the July 23 Calls for $.95.

Also, we have seen a big sell order of 10,000 contracts of IAU on April 18 Calls for a $.25. This could be covering of a prior position or an outright short.
By: Greg Zimny

Reason I like this Trade: There are unusual options activity orders then there was this order in FCEL.  Someone bought about 5,000 FCEL July 2 Calls for $.25.  This stock has been raging higher and been trading higher on 10 of the last 11 days.  FCEL just inked a deal with IPKT for stationary power plants in Germany, and it looks the alternative energy story has more room to run.  With higher oil prices, Solar and alternative energy looks like a great way to play this space.  Just like I have been trading the Solar stocks, I will be looking to take off partial profits in a run-up in stock, but I have almost 5 more months for this trade to pan out to a winner.  With the price Please feel free to email me with any questions at andrew@keeneonthemarket.com

UPDATE 2.24.2012 I like to put orders in the book, so if a trade trades I get on the “print.”  Why would I not put an offer in or bid in just in case, it is FREE advertising.  Today, I was offering, trying to sell, FCEL July 2 Calls for $.35 and I got filled on 20% on my position.  I still have 80% left, but locking in 40% profit on 25% of my position.  That is a “Trade of the Week.”

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I still have a 80% position on and these Calls are currently worth $.30, I took partial profits, but I still see more upside in the alternative energy space.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 Someone sold these Calls for $.20 yesterday, the exact number that was purchased for $.25.  So, I will be looking to punt this trade on any upside POP.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 These Calls are worth $.25 and they are in my BACK pocket, for a great risk vs reward play.

UPDATE 3.1.2012 I still own these Calls and they are worth $.25. 

UPDATE 3.5.2012 These Calls are still worth $.15, but if I get a POP in the stock, I will be looking to take them off and move to the next trade.  

UPDATE 3.9.2012 These Calls are currently worth $.20 for a small loser, but these kind of stocks can POP at any time, so it another lottery ticket for the back-pocket.  

UPDATE 4.9.2012  I am still LONG these Calls and I was offering them today at $.15.  They are currently worth $.10, but my position is so small I am not too concerned.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs announces that it is now long on WTI. Maybe it is the time to fade WTI Crude! According to Nancy Pelosi, “speculators are pushing the price of oil up and killing our economy and consumer. In fact, US oil production is at its highest level since 2003. We need to take strong action to protect consumers from this speculation.” It appears that a WTI crude oil margin hike is inevitable. WTI is at a fresh year high trading around the $107 level and appears that their appears to be real buyers and not jest people short covering. Finally, EUR/USD broke out of its trading range and is close to the $1.332 level.

AFTER THE BELL EARNINGS:

DECK: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q4E)- $3.13 Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)-$562M. Deckers offer luxury shoes such as UGGs and multiple types of UGG accessories. Deckers Management reiterated their guidance after last quarter and stated, “pre- spring orders looking strong.” Expect a big move in one direction or another.

GPS: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q4E)- $.42 Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)- $4.3B. Despite Gaps annual sales growth of $-1.75 for the last five years, could Gap miss analysts expectations and still run like Abercrombie is doing? Also, Gap is expanding into high-growth markets such as China, opening 30 new stores.

by: Greg Zimny

MGM Resorts (MGM) reported a loss of $0.23 cents per share against consensus of $0.19. The stock saw continued selling and closed at $13.73. I would really watch this name if the market gets weak because now that earnings are out of the way, I still think there is room to swing this on the downside. I remain firm in my $12.40 target for MGM. Hewlett-Packard released guidance after hours that was short from what analysts were expecting. This was due to weak PC group sales. This really should not be a surprise to anyone. This name could see some trading action tomorrow. Stock is currently down 1.85% to $28.80 in after-hours trading. Netflix was unloved today, trading down 5 points to $112.40. But something really important to note is that NFLX filled the gap between $112 and $108. Netflix could really go either way here in my opinion but Momentum, MacD and RSI are starting to display signs of bearish divergence. Deckers (DECK), Crocs (CROX), E Commerce China (DANG), First Solar (FSLR), Foster Wheeler AG (FWLT), GAP (GPS), Molycorp (MCP), Rubicon Technologies (RBCN), Salesforce.com (CRM) and SandRidge Energy (SD) ALL REPORT TOMORROW. This will be a big day. Anything positive from DANG will lift the likes of RENN, BORN and YOKU, while FSLR will affect the solars. Some pin action names to watch off FSLR earnings would be SPWR, ASTI, STP, YGE and TSL. AVL and TC could really move off MCP earnings as well. AVL is forming a nice base around the $2.90 area as well as a little wedge. This name looks poised to run.
Written by Cameron Patrick
@Cam_Patrick

HPQ is currently trading near its 52 week highs and is getting ready to report after the close today. HPQ Quarterly Earnings and estimates (Q4E)- $.87 and Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)- $30.7B. HPQ has a 61% positive surprise history. Should be interesting to see how HPQ trades post report as Dell fell after earnings.

MGM posted a profit of $3.1B vs last year’s profit of $1.44B. Revenue rose 55% or $2.3B as MGM made more from entertainment and the consumer spending more. MGM resorts said its US properties improved occupancy and average daily room rate.

UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY:

We have seen a Customer buy FCEL July 2 Calls for $.25. I also bought them due to the volume and massive move of the FCEL stock.

We have seen a huge seller of MS Apr 22 Calls for $.25. As Andrew Keene reported on Bloomberg.. He thinks these are institutions repositioning. I believe this is a closing trade due to the open interest in MS Calls.

By Greg Zimny