Euro (6E) and Oil (CL) Pivot Points for 8.1.2012
Category: Blog
Halftime Report 7.31.2012
WTI crude oil futures fell 93 cents to $88.85 and gold futures fell 80 cents to $1618.90.
Long-term I remain bearish on the EUR/USD, however I will stay out of this trade during this short-squeeze time period.
S&P 500 futures were up a modest 1.25 points to 1381.75. If the ES’s bullish rally continues, I will be looking to go long if the index futures break the 1395.00 level. NASDAQ futures gained 11 points to 2646.75 and Dow Jones industrial Average futures rose 16 points to 13017.00.
Apple (AAPL) continued its rise above the $600 level this morning by rising over 2.5% to $610.00 after last week’s algo overloaded sell off. Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS), an AAPL chip producer posted massive gains of over 24% after the company posted higher than expected guidance.
Investors may finally be realizing that social media stocks are not great monetary investments in the short-term. Facebook made new lows since its IPO in May, trading down over 4% to $21.86 and currently trading around the $22.00 level. Other social media sell offs were cited in Linkedin (LNKD) and Zynga (ZNGA).
Diesel engine maker Cummins (CMI) rallied over 7.5% after posting better than expected earnings and guidance.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.
Movers and Shakers – CRUS – 7.31.2012
The integrated circuit company’s revenues rose 7% to $99 million from $92.24 million at this time last year. They project revenues to be between $170 and $190 million, above analysts’ estimates of $129.65.
Cirrus produces chips that are in nearly every Apple (AAPL) product. Considering that the iPhone 5 is due to release this winter, I think that Cirrus would be a great buy, as CRUS and AAPL are positively correlated and I am bullish on AAPL.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.
Morning Rage 7.31.2012
Not only are there a slew of announcements in the market, today also marks the
beginning of the FOMC meeting. The announcements go as follows:
• ICSC- Goldman Store Sales 7:45am
• Personal Income and Outlays 8:30am
• Employment Cost Index 8:30am
• Redbook 8:55am
• S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00am
• Chicago PMI 9:45am
• Consumer Confidence 10:00am
• State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00am
As for the stock market the S&P 500 will open at a decline of 0.05%, and so will 10-
year treasuries at 1.33%. Oil is up at 0.16% and the dollar is down 0.07%.
US Steel came out with its earnings this morning, announcing 61 cents per share
which beat analysts expectations of 48 cents per share. But its not all good news, the
company says its net income has fallen by more than half and this time last year the
company posted $1.33 per share.
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Chris Cruises the Globe 7.31.2012
The Hang Seng rose 1.1%, up four day in a row, to finish the month up 1.8% and 7.3% so far this year.
Banks contributed to the gains with HSBC adding .6% and China Construction bank up 3.4%. The
Shanghai composite did not do so well as it close down .3% for the day and over 5% on the month
making July its worst month since early 2009.
European shares have hit the wall with the FTSEurofirst currently down .1% due to analysts’ warnings
that the ECB may not make as bold of moves as expected. UBS is a top loser down 5.5% as the
investment bank took a hit on Facebook’s market debut. Deutsche Bank was also hit currently down
1.3%. BP took a plunge of 3.3% after delivering the worst results among top oil companies and slashing
5B off its value of US assets. 44% of European companies have reported so far and 47% of them have
missed expectations.
Canadian home improvement company Rona rejected a buyout offer from Lowe’s saying the deal is not
in its shareholders’ best interests. Lowe’s has not ruled out upping the bid or a hostile takeover bid.
Commodities crude, natural gas, silver and gold are all beginning the day pretty flat with each up
under .3%
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
August Seasonal Commodity Statistics by David Cornes
This year, drought fears in July caused grains to shoot through the roof after news of a highly damaged corn and soybean crop. So far this summer has not reflected normal weather conditions, with drought conditions likely to support grain prices throughout the remainder of the summer. If I were going to put on a grain trade, I may decide go long a calendar spread. From what I have heard about this year’s corn crop, I do not see prices falling before the harvest.
Cattle prices are usually strong in August, continuing through February, while hogs are typically weak throughout the month.
The end of August is typically a bullish period for gold, with silver prices increasing as well. Inversely, copper prices start to decline as the peak summer construction season comes to an end. Thirty year Treasury prices also typically move in the opposite direction of gold and stocks by hovering in a weak month.
The EUR/USD pair is typically weak through about Labor Day while the Swiss Franc is typically at its seasonal low around the beginning of the month. The British Pound is also typically weak during this period continuing through September.
The Yen as the tendency to post lows against the dollar starting in late August through early October as August marks the halfway point in Japan’s fiscal year.
Sugar typically experiences seasonal lows in August is the end of the sugar cane harvest season in Brazil and India and the sugar market is flooded with new supply.
Historically, crude stays strong through August with the possibility of a downward slide toward the end of the month. Natural gas typically rises starting in late July through around December. Consumers use more natural gas when the weather reaches extreme highs and lows.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.
Doherty at the Close 7.30.2012
Business and consumer confidence in the euro zone fell in July from June, with a significant weakening evident in France and Germany, and a reading on Spain’s second-quarter gross domestic product fell 0.4% from the first quarter, its third quarterly contraction in a row. In the U.K., mortgage lending fell in June to the lowest level since December 2010.
Crude-oil futures eased 0.5% to $89.65 a barrel, while gold futures edged up 0.3% to $1,622.40 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro but fell against the yen. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 1.503% as demand rose.
In corporate news, AT&T rose near 1% after the blue-chip telecom company said it increased its stock-repurchase program by 300 million shares, which represents about 5% of the company’s shares outstanding. Trina Solar (TSL) fell after the solar-panel provider lowered its guidance for the second quarter, citing lower-than-expected shipment volume.
Euro (6E) and Oil (CL) Pivot Points for 7.31.2012
S&P Emini Pivot Points for 7.31.2012
Halftime Report 7.30.2012
S&P 500 futures fell 5.25 points to 1377.25, NASDAQ futures fell 9 points to 2633.00, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 32 points to trade just above the significant 13000.00 level at 13001.00.
This year’s mutated corn crop continued to rise 18.60 cents to $8.1700, with grain prices across the board rising as well.
WTI crude futures were unchanged with a drop of 36 cents to $89.77, and gold futures rose 90 cents to $1618.90.
Shaw Group Inc. (SHAW) gained over 50% after Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. agreed to a buyout of the energy services company.
Apple (AAPL) gained over 2% to $598.32, nearing the significant $600 level after releasing positive download data about its Mountain Lion operating system. If the $600 level is broken, I would be tempted to go long this stock.
Facebook Inc. hovered around last week’s lows and traded around the $23.00 level.
David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.