Halftime Report 7.20.2012

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In my opinion today may be a great day to pick a top in equity indices after an irrational rally this past week. I would hold a position for a mid-term fall in the EUR/USD and S&P 500 index futures.

WTI crude futures erased some of yesterday’s gains by falling $1.45 to $91.21 after easing geopolitical concerns. Gold continues on its annual rise by gaining $4.10 to $1584.50.

Soybean futures continued to go parabolic by rising another 25.40 cents this morning on drought concerns.

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) lost .99% after seeing higher costs associated with grains prices.

Kayak (KYAK) rose over $5 this morning after its IPO price of $26.

SanDisk Corp (SNDK) gained over 13% after reporting weak earnings, but growing demand for the second half of the year.


David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Movers and Shakers – CMG – 7.20.2012

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Last night Chipotle reported quarterly earnings of $2.56 a share and revenues of $690.93 million. Analysts expected an EPS of 2.3 and revenues of $707.09 million. CMG reported a 61% rise in profit last quarter after stronger margins, developmental growth and increased sales. Although they posted growth, CMG said that they did not see as many customers in April as customers may be downgrading to lower quality and more affordable fast food restaurants due to our weak economy. Their customer base is still growing, just at a slower rate than previous time frames.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Chris Cruises the Globe 7.20.2012

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Europe is beginning the day down across the borders with the FTSE showing a .5% loss, however is still up for the week and has added 12% since June 4th. 15% of European companies due to report results have done so with average earnings up 6% above consensus. Vodafone fell 2.4% showing a drop in organic growth the first quarter. Nokia also fell, 4.6%, as a number of banks cut their target price. Scania, a truck maker, rose 4.7% due to a less than expected drop in sales orders. EADS gained 4% after being upgraded to buy by Goldman Sachs. The next wave of bad debt to hit lenders comes in the form of student loans. A report released yesterday showed defaults on private student loans was over 8B last year. They reported this was due to aggressive marketing by lenders over the past 10 years. Woes are weighing in the commodity market with crude, natural gas, and silver down and gold showing a spark of hope up just .06%. Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Morning Rage 7.20.2012

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In the news there are no reports or censuses being announced today so we will
move right along to the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 0.27% while 10-year
treasuries are down 2.63%. Oil is taking a hit as well, down 1.74%. The dollar holds
strong at an increase of 0.50%

Today the dispute between Viacom and DirecTv was finally settled. DirecTv
customers will now get 17 channels such as Comedy Central and MTV back.

Make sure to check out our free Webinar this Monday, July 23 and follow us on
Twitter @keeneonmarket!

Doherty at the Close 7.19.2012

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A downbeat round of economic data kept a lid on the market’s gains. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits jumped to 386,000 last week, the Labor Department reported, more than expected by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. The prior week’s reading was revised higher but remained at the lowest level since 2008.

Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region contracted, albeit at a slower pace, for a third straight month in July, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s index of manufacturing activity. The Conference Board’s leading economic index fell further than forecast.

European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 1.1% as strong earnings and Germany’s expected approval of the aid plan for Spanish banks buoyed sentiment. Asian markets rallied on the back of strength in the U.S. and in resource stocks, which were boosted by continued gains in oil prices. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.7%, Australia’s S&P ASX 200 ran up 2%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average advanced 0.8%.

Crude-oil futures rose 3.1% to settle at $92.66. Gold futures gained 0.6% to finish at $1580.10. The dollar ticked higher against the euro but fell versus the yen.

Halftime Report 7.19.2012

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Existing homes sales took a nosedive to $4.37 million from $4.62.

S&P 500 futures rose 4.75 points to 1372.00, NASDAQ futures rose 30 points to 2650.00 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 16 points to 12876.00.

Commodities were dealing with different crisis across the world. WTI crude futures rose on tensions in the Middle East. WTI was up $2.44 to $92.31 and gold futures rose $16.20 to $1587.00.

Corn and soybean futures continued their July climb, rising 11 and 39.20 cents respectively. 95% of the number 2 largest corn and soy state of Illinois was in what is considered a severe drought, up from 65% last week.

Morgan Stanley (MS) released weak earnings after reporting the lowest stock and bond trading revenue on Wall Street. Profit was $591 million and 29 cents a share Shares were trading at $13.37, down 62 cents or 4.43% on the day.

Nokia Corp. (NOK) also released a weak set of earnings due to its premier telephone handset missed sales expectations. Although earnings were weak, they did boast a healthy supply of cash.

J.M. Smucker, the jam company released earnings of 52 cents a share, an increase of 8%. Maybe people flock to jam based sandwiches in difficult economic times?

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Movers and Shakers – MLNX – 7.19.2012

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Mellanox Technologies posted quarterly earnings numbers that beat last year’s and analysts numbers. The Israeli semiconductor connectivity company posted a profit of 80 cents a share, 25 cents higher than expected and over double last year’s earnings. Revenue was $133.5 million, shooting the $128 million projection out of the water. EPS increased by 267% and sales grew 111%. Gross profit margins increased to 70.5%, higher than 68.9% at the same time last year.

MNLX remains optimistic about their guidance with Q3 sales estimates in the range of $150-155 million. Their growth is mostly based in Web 2.0, cloud, database and financial services sectors.  It is nice to see that the European crisis in not negatively affecting every industry.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Chris Cruises the Globe 7.19.2012

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The Hang Seng climbed 1.7% with some help from the banks and a positive MBA report from the US.
China Construction bank added 2.7% and the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China followed with 2.5%.
Real estate also lagged today in China with China Overseas Land & Investment losing 1.4% and China
Resources Land down .1%, two of only 4 that posted losses in the index today.

European shares advanced to 11 week highs as the FTSEurofirst is currently up .4%, on track for 7
straight week of gains, its longest since 05’. Electrolux jumped 4.4% and AkzoNobel gained 5% after
their earnings beat forecasts. Tool maker Sandvik grew 6% lifted by earnings above market expectations
for Q2. So far 64% of European large and mid-cap firms beat or met expectations and have had profits
increase an average of 3.4% year over year, according to Reuters Starmine data.

Deutsche Bank plans to cut 1000 investment-banking positions as activity in the capital market slows
down due to the Eurozone Crisis.

Nokia Siemens returns to profitability with pre-market shares up 5.8%.

The Home Depot plans to close 10 of its 52 branches across Israel, looking to lower rental costs.

Commodities are benefiting from the upbeat data with crude, natural gas, gold and silver all showing
gains to begin the session.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu