Doherty at the Close 7.17.2012

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In corporate news, Coca Cola (KO) advanced 1.58% after the beverage giant reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. Goldman Sachs (GS gained 1.1% after the investment bank reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 0.9% even after the drug and consumer-products company reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations and lowered its 2012 earnings outlook. Yahoo (YHOO) fell 0.1% after the internet giant named Google executive Marissa Mayer as Chief Executive on Tuesday afternoon.

In U.S. economic news, consumer prices were flat in June, in line with expectations, as energy costs continued to fall. Investors have said the Fed might be less hesitant to roll out additional stimulus measures if inflation is lower. Industrial production picked up in June, rising slightly more than expectations, according to the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, capacity utilization increased slightly but fell short of expectations.

Finally, Facebook (FB) dropped 2.9%, adding to Monday’s 8.1% slide, ahead of next week’s quarterly earnings report for the social-media company, its first ever as a publicly traded company.

Halftime Report 7.17.2012

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The yearly U.S. CPI number came in higher than the expected 1.6% and the same as last year at this time at 1.7%.

Corn futures continued its rise, up 9.5 cents on the day to 786 cents.

EUR/USD futures moved against stocks and fell 29 pipps to trade at $1.2257.

WTI crude futures rose 27 cents to $88.70 and gold futures fell $3.00 to $1588.60.

Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee did not give hints on easing as expected, however markets are watching his every move as the conference continues through tomorrow.

Mattel (MAT) shares rose 8% after posting an earnings increase of 20% supported by high sales in Fisher-Price and American Girl dolls.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) lost 7.3% after posting an earnings increase of 22% coupled with weak guidance.

Traders are eyeing EBay Inc. (EBAY) as they will release their results after the close. Analysts estimate that they will post earnings of 55 cents per share and revenue of $3.36 billion. EBAY was trading at $38.66, up 6 cents on the day.

The French telecom company Alcatel-Lucent tumbled 17.5% after releasing weak guidance. Telecom companies were red across the board due to global economic uncertainty.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Earnings Central 7.17.2012

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Amid the deteriorating global markets and European debt crisis, the results were driven by Goldman’s prudent expense management. However, the reported earnings lagged the prior-year quarter’s earnings by 7 cents. Moreover, results declined substantially from $3.92 per share recorded in the prior quarter. Net income declined from $2.1 billion in the first quarter, to $927 million, a significant loss in revenue. Total revenue of Goldman decreased 9% from the prior-year quarter to $6.6 billion, resulting from a decrease in overall businesses, partially offset by higher incentive fees. Within Goldman, the Investment Banking division generated revenues of $1.2 billion, down 17% year over year. However, leading the increase are Institutional Client Services and Investment Management, up 11% and 5%, respectively, year over year.

Coca- Cola

Coca- Cola (KO) reported adjusted operating earnings of $1.22 EPS in the second quarter of 2012, beating the consensus analyst estimate by 2.5%. Earnings were also 4% above the prior-year adjusted earnings driven by positive revenue and volume growth which made up for higher commodity costs and currency headwinds. For Coke, growth was led by a 4% volume rise in emerging markets and with still drinks like water, juices, teas, coffees, energy drinks, and sports drinks. Volume jumped 12% in Eurasia and Africa, 8% in the Pacific, and 3% in Latin America. Net income was $2.79 billion, down from $2.80 billion a year earlier. Net earnings per share rose to $1.21 from $1.20 because of fewer shares outstanding. Excluding items, earnings were $1.22 per share, topping the analysts’ average estimate of $1.19, according to Thomson Reuters. Finally, revenue rose about 3 percent to $13.09 billion. Analysts had expected $12.98 billion.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported lower than expected quarterly earnings sales this morning and cuts its full year 2012 profit forecast, citing negative foreign exchange factors, but nevertheless, quarterly estimates beat Wall Street estimates by a slim margin. JNJ earned $1.41 billion or $0.50 per share in the second quarter. However, that number was essentially halved from the first quarter earnings of $2.78 billion, or $1 per share. Looking forward, expectations for the third quarter have not changed from $1.25 with $5.14 EPS expected for the fiscal year.

Mattel

Mattel (MAT) reported second quarter 2012 earnings of $0.28 cents per share, outperforming Wall Street estimates by 7 cents. Second quarter earnings were also above the year-ago quarter earnings of 23 cents per share. During the quarter, net sales remained flat year over year at $1,158.7 million, but were around $20 million higher than expected. While worldwide gross sales for Mattel Girls & Boys Brands declined 1% year over year, sales for Barbie and Hot Wheels led the uptrend, gaining 5% and 11%, respectively. Additionally, the more expensive brands such as American girl jumped 3% to $68.7 million with the Other Girls Brand skyrocketing 96% year over year. Finally, Mattel repurchased nearly 70,000 shares of common stock for approximately $2 million and declared a quarterly dividend of 31 cents per share, a small dividend yield near 1%.

Reporting after the close:

Intel

Intel (INTC) is expected to report earnings after the close today, July 17, 2012. Consensus analyst estimates expect Intel to report an EPS of $0.52 and 13.45B in revenue. Intel’s Q2 revenue forecast is for $13.1B-$14.1B. Intel’s earnings report will reveal details about the health of the semiconductor market and shed some light on the sudden drop-off in demand some are seeing in the IT space. Wall Street analysts have been trimming their expectations as PC sales continue to decline and Intel shares peaked in early May. Additionally, market seems to now widely expect Intel to guide Q3 below consensus — perhaps to $14.0B-$14.5B, but expect a relief rally for almost anything other than “doomsday guidance.” Stifel recently cut its 3Q revenue estimate for Intel to $14.4B, up modestly from Q2 and well below the $14.8B consensus. Intel has a 59% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 30 of the 51 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within ten trading days of these fifty-one earnings reports is -0.3%. The strongest price movement of -1.1% comes within one trading day when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +4.7% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (opposite reactor). Last quarter the company reported earnings thirteen cents ahead of the whisper number.

Yahoo!

Yahoo! (YHOO) is expected to report Q2 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, July 17, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. Wall Street analyst predicts an EPS of $0.23 and $1.10B in revenue. Yahoo’s earnings for Q2 will be clipped by an anticipated charge of up to $145M to cover severance costs for laying off 2,000 employees, or about 14% of its workforce. Yahoo’s Q2 results are likely to highlight challenges facing new CEO Marissa Mayer, imported from Google (GOOG). Most analysts believe Yahoo’s Q2 revenue will be just slightly above last year’s at this time — helped by gains from the ads that Yahoo has been selling to run alongside the widely watched news, sports, finance and entertainment video clips on its website. But investors want to see some of the same robust growth that Google and Facebook (FB) have enjoyed for years. Yahoo also is expected to get a lift from revenue generated from its large stakes in two of Asia’s most successful Internet companies, China’s Alibaba Group and Yahoo Japan. Yahoo! has a 61% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 56 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within ten trading days of these fifty-six earnings reports is +0.1%. The strongest price movement of +2.0% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -6.7% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Last quarter the company reported earnings five cents ahead of the whisper number.


Thomas Doherty is majoring in Finance and Economics at Villanova University. Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

 

Movers and Shakers – EDU – 7.17.2012

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The Chinese private education services provider boasted a 14% gain in quarterly earnings this morning led by increased enrollment. Revenue forecasts are estimated between $342 and $356 million. Revenue rose 41% to $193 million, higher than analysts expectations of $182-189 million. Along with increased revenues, student enrollment increased by 7.7% in this quarter and have increased 16% since last year.

Analysts remain bullish on EDU after this quarter’s earnings with Wells Fargo setting an outperform rating to shares and Piper Jaffray’s price target of $36-37.00.

EDU’s business model is based off of demand for English lessons in China. Classes range from personalized VIP programs to afterschool tutoring across different subjects.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Chris Cruises the Globe 7.17.2012

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The Hang Seng jumped 1.75% today besting Asia with gains in property developers, Insurers and
railways. China Life jumped 3.6% and China Pacific Life rose 3.5% in the Index. BoA selected Cheung
Kong, Henderson Land and New World development as their top real estate picks in China helping the
stocks to increase 4.2% and over 2% each respectively. China Railway Construction rose over 4%.

The FTSEurofirst is down .1% as investors wait patiently for Ben Bernanke’s move. Volumes are currently
at just 23% of their 90 day average. Alcatel-Lucent dropped over 12% after saying it will miss its 2012
profit guidance after a 40M Euro loss in the second quarter. Nokia had another day in the dumps losing
4.8% after being downgraded by Jefferies.

Ford, down again in pre-market, announced it will cut 15% of its workforce in Australia and reduce
production by 29%.

Commodities begin today with an upbeat outlook as gold, crude and natural gas all have gains while
silver is the one out down just over .6%.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Morning Rage 7.17.2012

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As for the economy, store sales were announced this morning at 0% change rate and the CPI and Redbook are due out at 8:30AM and 8:55AM respectively. Also released today will be Industrial Production at 9:15AM and Housing Market at 10:00AM EST. The biggest announcement to watch out for today though is Ben Bernanke’s speech at 10:00AM EST. Bernanke is going to speak on the Senate’s semi-annual monetary policy. The S&P 500 is down once again at 0.23% while 10-year treasuries and oil are up 0.68% and 0.27%. The dollar also joins the upward trend at 0.03%. In the news today was the big Goldman Sachs announcement and while the company stated its net income fell 11% and only received $1.78 per share it beat the estimates of $1.17 by a long shot. Make sure to check out our webinar this Sunday, 22nd and follow us on Twitter, @keeneonmarket!

Doherty at the Close 7.16.2012

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Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast by 0.1%, taking the total down to 3.5%.

In corporate news, Citigroup (C) edged up after reporting better than expected earnings. Retail sales fell for the third straight month in June, the Commerce Department reported, bucking economists’ projections for a slight increase and marking the first three-month streak of declines since 2008.

European markets were mixed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.2% and Spain’s IBEX-35 index down 2% as investors continued to worry about the euro zone’s ability to rescue troubled sovereign nations if the need arises.