Doherty at the Close 6.13.2012

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Concerns about the strength of Italy’s economy moved to the forefront in late afternoon, amid trader jitters about the demand for Italy’s bonds ahead of its auction. In addition to US markets losing ground, European markets also faltered in the afternoon as the Stoxx Europe fell -0.4%, after initially being up 0.4%.

Another reason for the market concern has been Greece. With their elections on Sunday, many investors are watching the Greek election very closely and expect the outcome to have a heavy influence on the market.

Crude-oil futures fell 1.2% to $82.35 a barrel, while gold futures rose 0.3% to $1618 an ounce. The U.S. dollar lost ground against the euro and the yen.

In equity news, Dell led the S&P, rising 2.3% after the computer company announced that they plan on paying quarterly dividends of $0.08 per share. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also gained as the health provider closed its $19.7 billion bid for Synthes medical. Finally, Facebook (FB), mirroring the market, lost -0.47% after spending much of the day in the green.

Thomas Doherty is majoring in Finance and Economics at Villanova University. Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Halftime Report 6.12.2012

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S&P 500 futures were slightly down on the day at 1317.50, down 2.5 points (-0.19%), Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 17 points (0.14%) at 12497.00, and NASDAQ futures were up 4.5 points (0.18%) at 2549.50.

WTI crude futures are up 32 cents (0.38%) at $83.64 and gold was up $8.40 (0.52%) at $1622.20.

EUR/USD futures gained 1.06 cents and are trading at $1.2607.

Dell (DELL) rose over 4% this morning after announcing its’ first dividend plan of 32 cents a share.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG) traded down to $39.03, down $4.02 (-9.34%) as they expected to fall short on their previous fiscal year guidance. SunTrust analysts said with regards to the poor 2011 gardening season, “”not only does this bring the health of the category into question, but we also believe Scotts will need lower ad spending and stepped-up pricing to improve bottom-line results.”

Movers and Shakers (CASY) 6.13.2012

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The convenience store and retain gasoline giant beat sales expectations by a sales increase of 13%, to $1.752 billion, beating expectations of $1.74 billion. Fourth quarter earnings increased 1.4% on strong sales and higher margins on its store products, offsetting low margins on gasoline sales and higher operating expenses. CEO Robert Myers said, “In the fourth quarter, the gas margin was down nearly 2 cents per gallon from the same period a year ago, which reduced basic earnings per share by approximately 12 cents.” The average margin per gallon of gasoline was 15.3 cents, with total gallons sold so far this year up 5.9% and gross gasoline profit up 6.8%. Operating expenses were 175.95 million, up 17%. CASY produced a net income of $23.1 million (60 cents a share), an increase in net income from last year’s $22.8 million earnings at 60 cents a share.

Morning Rage 6.13.2012

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The news of its chairman resigning today, the day
after the CEO quit, encourage a huge sell off of the stock.

The FTSEurofirst was up .2% as investors placed cautious bets to brace themselves for the upcoming
Greek elections. The Pharmaceutical and food & beverage industries led the way to shallow gains. In
Spain retailer Inditex was rewarded for their first quarter profit growth with an 8.4% jump in stock
prices.

In the US the MBA purchase applications were released today with purchase applications jumping 13%,
their highest level in 6 months, pointing to strength in home sales. Refinancing applications also 19%
back to its levels of April.

In commodities energy and metals are down today; crude, natural gas, gold and silver all in the red.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Doherty at the Close 6.12.2012

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Financial stocks saw a late surge as an executive from Bank of America said that capital-market conditions in the second half of this year are shaping up to be better than last year. Both Bank of America and JPMorgan rose 2.9%.

Markets continue to take their cues from Europe, and investors said to expect volatile trading ahead of a key election in Greece this weekend. The vote could determine the country’s future in the 17-nation euro currency bloc.

In the rest of the World, the Stoxx Europe added 0.6%, after briefly turning negative after Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit ratings on a host of Spanish banks. Japan’s Nikkei Average lost near -1% and the China Shanghai Composite dropped -0.7%.

Crude-oil futures rose 0.8% to $83.32 a barrel, while gold futures gained 1.1% to $1612.70 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar lost ground against the euro but rose against the yen. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 1.661% as demand fell.

In corporate news, Apple (AAPL) gained 0.9% after failing Monday with their disappointing announcements on their new product lines. While an iPhone 5 was not expected, an improved MacBook line does little to Apple’s total revenue and as such, their stock price dropped. Facebook (FB) rose 1.5% as they defended assertions that their ads were ineffective and have little influence over users. On the other end of the social media stocks, Zynga (ZNGA) skidded 10% to a new all-time low as reports surfaced that their daily users have declined significantly over the last few months. Finally, Michael Kors (KORS) rose 7.7% after they announced that quarterly earnings had doubled, beating Wall Street analyst expectations.

Looking forward to tomorrow, retail sales reports and PPI data are released at 8:30 AM and should have a fairly significant move on the market. Korn/Ferry International lists as the only major company scheduled for earnings tomorrow, June 13.

Thomas Doherty is a Villanova University student majoring in Finance and Economics. Questions and comments at Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Trade of the Day (SPY) 6.12.2012

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if SPY closes under $129.10 or above $132.90 June 5, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $3 minus the price I sold it for $1.00 for a total of $3.00.

Reason I Like This Trade:  I like this trade, because I am selling today’s rally in the stock market, but I am not buying premium.  I make money of the stock market comes back to reality and sells back to the 1300 level.  If it rallies higher, I defined my risk vs reward and will move to the next trade.

UPDATE 6.13.2012  This Spread looked much better this morning, but it is currently worth $1.10.  Since it is not a LONG premium position, I will leave it on for more future potential profits.

UPDATE 6.27.2012  With time against me, I took this Spread off at $.87 and moving to the next trade.  I saw the stock market finding buyers at the $131 level, so I knew it was time to move on

Read more about profitable by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Halftime Report 6.12.2012

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Michael Kors Holdings Inc. (KORS) had a spike this morning after the fashion firm’s earnings beat expectations. Its’ fourth quarter profit smoked 2011’s fourth quarter earnings and came in at $43.6 million, up from $13.6 million.

Zynga Inc. (ZNGA) had a terrible morning, suffering a 9.4% loss after yesterday’s 8% decline.

Harman International Industries was down over 8% mid-day after Apple’s (AAPL) announcement that Siri, their proprietary voice technology, will be placed in new cars.

David Cornes holds a degree in Economics from the University of Montana.

Movers and Shakers (KOR) 6.12.2012

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People can’t seem to get enough of Michael Kors Holdings, a luxury lifestyle brand. KORS posted an 80.3% increase in net sales for the recent quarter and 71 new stores. Wholesale net sales increased 45.5% and royalty revenues are up 26.9% from a year ago. Management put the Q1 EPS between 18 and 20 cents, above analysts’ expectations of 16 cents. Q1 revenue came in between $360-370 million, far beyond analysts’ expectations of $322 million. Profit increases to $43.6 million, or 22 cents a share, from the previous quarter’s $13.6 million, or 10 cents a share. The fourth quarter diluted EPS increased 120% to 22 cents. KORS CEO and Chairman said, “We are pleased with our results for the quarter and the year, as we experienced strong growth in both total revenue and net income. This year we continued executing our key growth strategies, resulting in a 58.3% and 62.1% increase in total revenues for the quarter and year, respectively.”

KORS’ fiscal 2013 earnings expectations are great too. The EPS are expected to be between $1.08 and $1.12. Total revenue is expected to be around $1.7 and $1.8 billion. Analysts expect the full year earnings to be 98 cents on revenues of $1.69 billion.

David Cornes holds a degree in Economics from the University of Montana.