The New Weeks’ Rage 5.7.2012

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– Japan’s Nikkei Index was down 2.8% closing at 9,119.14, its lowest in 3 months

– Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.6% to 20,536.59, its worst loss in 5 months

– Germany’s DAX dropped 1.5% to 6463.67

– France’s CAC-40 lost 1.6% to 3,112.49

– Britain’s market were closed for a public holiday

Dow Jones Industrial average future dropped 54 points while NASDAQ 100 futures shed 15.25

China is showing us a silver lining this morning with inflation lowering to 3.3% for April from 3.6% the
previous month, both below the 4% target with output strengthening

-Along with this Toyota sales are up 68% in China compared to a year ago

By ChrisKOTM

Trade of the Day (GMCR) 5.4.2012

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if GMCR closes at $22 or $32 between now and June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I look at the at-the-money straddle in GMCR in June and it is implying a $5 move either up or down between now and June expiration.  I want to be LONG premium in the back month for earnings and short it in the non-earnings month.  So, I bought the September strangle and sold the June Strangle and will make money as long as GMCR stays in a $22-$32 range.

UPDATE 5.7.2012  With time on my side, this Spread is currently worth $3.65 and increasing in value over 7% over 1 day.  I will leave it on for more potential upside.

UPDATE 5.8.2012  With lack of movement, this spread is increasing in value by the day.  This spread is currently worth $4, but I wll leave this on for more upside profits.  

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With stock moving all over the place, this Spread is currently worth $3.85, but leaving it on with time on my side.  

UPDATE 5.10.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.11.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.14.2012  This spread actually moves around everyday and today this Spread is worth $3.80.  I will leave it on until ar least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This spread is back to be worth $4, but I will leave it on.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  Time is on my side and I will leave this trade on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.70, but it will be left on until further notice.  

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.40 and I am leaving it on to capture my profits as June options go down faster than the September ones. 

UPDATE 6.15.2012  This Spread is still on and is currently worth $3.50.  I will take it off on Friday


Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Halftime Report for 5.4.2012

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Any impressive movers: not really, body central corp BODY is down about 45% and for caffeine people
caribou coffee is down over 17%, an interesting side note is coffee is the second most traded commodity
in the world

With many industries down the drug industry is up and herbalife is proving to meet their upgrade as
they are up almost 5% today

And the big news of the day is the hit the non-farm’s payroll gave us this morning of 115,000 compared
to an expected 165,000 and a march of 154,000; this was anticipated by the market however still takes
its toll as does the unemployment rate which rose to 8.2% from 8.1%

Chris on the Close

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Linked in had a surprising jump and after hours are up over 9%

The M2 money supply showed a quite a change to a -40.5 Billion from last week’s 26.4

Bloomberg released its consumer comfort index which came in at a -37.6 for week ending April 29 th
from a -35.8 the previous week which had taken it to a 4 year high. Personal finances and measure
of the buying climate were the two of the three components that were down indicating a current
somewhat pessimistic outlook by consumers

The EIA Natural gas report posted an increase in natural gas storage of 28 billion cubic feet(bcf) during
the week of april 27th, 30 billion was expected. This less than expected increase could indicate a higher
than expected demand as it settled up 4% to $2.34 per MMbtu

The San Francisco Fed president spoke today mainly addressing unemployment; his belief is that it is
high due to cyclical weakness, it was rather inconclusive

Thanks for checking in, we will do it again tomorrow