Natural gas plummeted today and closed down 4% to 2.4460. In Warren Buffett’s quarterly letter he explained how his $2 billion bond investment in Energy Future Holdings might lose all of its value if Natural Gas continues to stay depressed. When Uncle Buffett says jump, the market says how high. ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) rallied over 18% to $8.42 after the company said drilling in Mississippi went better than expected. Dendreon (DNDN), the once lucrative Seattle biotech plunged over 20% to $11.81 after its main prostate drug “Provenge” had weak sales. This is the same drug that insurers did not want to accept when the company plummeted 40% in one day back in July. So this really shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. DNDN can provide great trading opportunities, but trying to bottom pick this name can prove to be very dangerous. Fundamentals have not changed at all. Priceline (PCLN) is up over 5% in afterhours to $627. Stock has rallied 100 points since breaking out on 1/12/12. And of course, how could I forget about AAPL. Stock made new all time highs today at $528.50 and closed at $525.76. Markets can stay irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

Written by Cameron Patrick
@Cam_Patrick

Therefore, the EUR/USD sold off in the Europe trading session. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading higher at the $1.34 level. In my opinion, only a margin hike or Central Bank Action will slow down this Brent/Crude Train. Keep an eye out for the French Elections coming in early April 2012. Volatility remains high in the currency and energy markets. 10 YR Treasury is at $1.91 as the shift from bonds to risk assets continue.

Unusual Option Activity:

· We have seen huge Call buying in OTM RIG Calls. Also, when AAPL was down $6 this morning we observed aggressive May $540 Call buyers .
· When DNDN was trading at $13.52, someone sold 3,900 Mar 15 Calls for $.56. DNDN is currently trading at 12$,
· A Customer bought 2,000 LPX April 8 Calls for $.6. LPX stock popped and the calls are currently worth $.70.

By: Greg Zimny

•Price Target: 50 DMA- $11.16 200 DMA $9.22. In October 2011, LNG hit a low of $4 . Today, LNG hit a fresh 52 wk high of $15.7 LNG has been on a rage this year. On January 1st, 2012 LNG was trading in the low $9’s

MAIN QUESTIONS REGARDING FUTURE OF LNG: How will they restructure their current debt?? This has to be done ahead of financing for the liquefaction project?
Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.
Also, Blackstone Group makes a huge $2B bet on LNG. Does this mean they have financing for LNG plant? would be HUGE. Proceeds will be used toward developing the liquefaction project at Sabine Pass. LNG expects debt financing to occur Q1 2012.

How will they restructure their current debt ahead of financing for the liquefaction project? This will impact their interest expenses.
– Will they sell even more shares of stock? The number of outstanding shares has increased from 51.0m in 2009 to 129.6m today. This doesn’t impact their net loss, but it makes the loss per share look smaller since a larger number of shareholders are dividing up the losses.

PCLN,CTB, and BRK.A report earnings today.
PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $5.02. Quarterly Earnings and Revenue Estimates of $968 million. In my estimation, Priceline will beat analyst expectations for EPS and Revenue, but will probably lower its guidance. Furthermore, not one insider bought new shares in PCLN this year. That speaks volumes!

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (QE4) of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue (QE4) of $1billion. In my opinion, the quarter will be a disappointment mainly due to weather, and consumers lack of replacement tire purchase. Also, announcements regarding labor disputes are expected during the CC.
By: Greg Zimny

Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if IRM Closes under $34.05 by July 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid for these Calls, $1.55.

Reason I like this Trade: There are unusual options activity orders, then I saw someone bought 1000 IRM July 32.5 Calls, they paid $1.55.  This was not a HUGE order, but it 30 times usual volume and the stock just had earnings, so volatility is very low.  The open interest on this strike was 1107 so it was an opening trade that is important as well.   I will be looking to piece of it it, just like I took profits in SEE, SYY, and SVU.  The chart looks strong and could test $32 very soon.  (See Disclaimer)

UPDATE 2.27.2012 With the stock looking strong on Friday, I sold 20% of my position for $1.75 and I still have an 80% position on thinking there is plenty of more room to the upside. 

UPDATE 2.28.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1.65, but I will leave this trade on for more upside.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 I am glad I sold 20% of my position, because IRM is looking a little bit weaker than expected.  I might look to Punt this trade on an upward move higher.

UPDATE 3.1.2012 I will be looking to take this trade off with a POP higher in stock.  These Calls are currently worth $1.45.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This Calls are worth $1.35, but since I have 5 more months for this trade, I will leave it on for more upside, but glad I took partial profits.

UPDATE 3.5.2012 IRM is selling off again today, showing me that I have to take profits quicker than I have in the past.  Trading is trial and error, I think I need to make more quick profits and move on.

UPDATE 3.6.2012 I talked about the fact that I need to move a little faster on my trades, so I should have exited this one a little faster.  At least, I have until July until this trade can be profitable.

UPDATE 3.9.2012 This is interesting, because the other day Paper bought another 7,000 of these Calls for $1.00.  I sold a partial part of my position for $1.15 and I am comfortable taking this trade off for a scratch or small loser.

UPDATE 3.15.2012 These Calls are currently worth $1, but since they are 5 months away, I will leave them on

UPDATE 3.22.2012 These Calls are worth $.75 and I am happy that this trade is woring against me, I am just thankful that I took some profits while I could.

UPDATE 4.9.2012 These Calls are still worth $.75 and I will leave this trade on as anything can happen between now and July.

ZAGG TRADE:

Trade: I sold the ZAGG March 9-8 Put Spread and sold the March 11-12 Call Spread for $.50 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if ZAGG Closes between $8.50-$11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if ZAGG Closes at $8.50 or $11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if ZAGG Closes under $8.50 or above $11.50 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.50 for a total of $.50.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 The earnings are after the close today and I put this order in the “Spread Book” for $.50 meaning I am willing to trade it for $.50, but I have NOT got filled yet.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 I actually did not get filled on this spread and I am mad because with volatility getting crushed this spread os worth $.35.  Oh well, on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is now worth $.20 making me upset that I did not get filled.  Oh well, on to the next trade, as LONG as my trading ideas are right, gives me a good feeling.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is worth is still worth $.20

SINA TRADE:

Trade: I bought the SINA March 55-67.5 Strangle and sold the March weekly 55-67.5 Strangle for $1.75 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if SINA closes between $55-$67.50 and the March volatility does not get crushed too bad.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if SINA Stangle Swap is worth $1.75.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if SINA Strangle Swap is worth less than $1.75.  This is a very hard trade to explain, but I basically want to the front month Strangle to be worthless and have Ma
rch volatility not get crushed, so the March strangle is worth more than $1.75.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I got a partial fill in this stock on Friday at $1.75 and now the spread is worth $1.95.  I have a $1.80 bid in the “Spread Book” and will increase my position before earnings after the close.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 Even with stock rallying much more than expected, this spread is still worth $1.85 good for a small winner.  It now has a short delta, so I will leave this trade until Friday.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 With the stock selling off today, this spread is now worth $2.20.  I am offering 40% of my position at $2.30, 40% at $2.50 and 20% at $2.70 trying to lock some profits in.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 The stock market looks weak, but SINA is raging higher, making this spread less valuable.  This spread is now worth $1.00, but I am glad that I took partial profits.  I will be left with LONG the March 67.5 Puts for $1, so I will leave this position on and hope that SINA sells off within the next 2 weeks.

LOW TRADE:

Trade: I sold the LOW March 28-29 Call Spread and 26-25 Put Spread for $.35 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if LOW Closes between $25.65-$28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if LOW Closes at $25.65 or $28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if LOW Closes under $25.65 or above $28.35 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.35 for a total of $.65.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I was NOT filled on this position on Friday and even with earnings out, this spread is worth about $.34.  I will not put an order in the “Spread Book,” because I only wanted to trade earnings and moving on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is worth $.38, but I do not have to worry about it, because I never was filled on the trade.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is still worth $.38.