It was a very choppy day in the markets today with no clear direction. Gold and Silver continue to show signs of strength. GLD closed up another 0.87% to $171.05 while its crazy cousin silver closed up 2% to $33.41. It appears as though Natural Gas (UNG) has made a short-term bottom around $5.00. UNG closed up 7.32% to $5.42. It carried many names up with it. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) broke its 20-dma and closed up over 7% to $21.66. The most explosive natural gas play today was GMX Resources (GMXR). The stock gapped up 10% to $1.10 in the morning and then EXPLODED 50% higher to $1.54 by the end of the close. The stock traded 13 million shares, which is 13-15x normal volume.  Watch this name closely for tomorrow; there could be a continuation. Over the last two days, the SPY has failed to rally into the close. This is a shift from the normal behavior that we have seen so far in 2012.

Reason I like this Trade: WYNN is a stock that has not moved that much on earnings within the past couple of quarters.  As I talked about on Bloomberg during my Interview, it is a sloppy chart and it will not break through the 100 Day Moving Average at $120, I wanted to make a play that it will not have much movement, so I am making an even money bet that this stock will not move the implied 5% move.  If you have any questions please email me at andrew@keeneonthemarket.com.

UPDATE 2.6.2012 On Friday this trade expired and WYNN closed right at $115 even.  I decided to buy the Feb 115 Puts I was short for $.10, so I did not have to determine if I was going to be assigned on those Puts over the weekend or not.  When I am short an option and it expires right at the strike, it is a guessing game to know if I get “assigned” on the option over the weekend.  If I am LONG the option and it closes at the strike, I determine if I want to exercise the option or not.  So, I turned $.10 into $2.45 and the trade is over.  Time to move on to the next trade.  

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The market was very strong intraday, but then sold off at the end of the close. In the last hour of trading the DOW sold off 50 points. I am starting to see some signs of exhaustion in the banking sector. Take Goldman Sachs (GS) for example. Stock has been very strong since breaking from its descending trend line on January 10^th. Once it cleared its 100-dma it looked like a straight shot to the 200-dma at 116. This is exactly what happened today, except it failed to close above the 200-dma. This failure clearly shows that there is intense selling pressure in the $115.50-$116 area. The Directional Movement Index is also near extremes as you can see below. I also still strongly believe Sears Holding Corporation is a great short here. It failed to get above resistance at $43.50 after breaking through this area yesterday. The problem with SHLD is that finding shares to short is extremely difficult. I believe the majority of traders who were heavily short this stock have covered when the stock went from $30-$50 in seven trading days. SHLD could very well make new lows. Technically some would argue that SHLD is developing into a bull flag, but I feel the fundamental issues of SHLD outweigh technical in this specific case.

 The gap between the (DI + and DI –) has not been this high since March 10, 2010 When the Reading was DI + (41) and DI – (9) which = a spread of 32. At this time Goldman was trading in the $170-$180 range. In the two months after this extreme reading was read Goldman fell 40 points and ended up in the $130-$140 range. Currently the spread of (DI + and DI -) is 30. The failure of the 200-dma could be the first sign that Goldman is about to switch directions and head to the downside.

Reason I like this Trade: There are unusual options activity orders then there was this order in SONC.  A customer bought 4100 March 7.5 Calls for $.25 and that was 75 times usual volume, yes 75 times usual volume.  I like to give my trades more time, so I bought the June 7.5 Calls for $.45.  This is a great risk vs reward and it seems as if the stock is breaking out and can trade up to the $8 level again.  I will look to piece out of these Calls if the stock trades higher, but I am very confident with this trade.  Please feel free to email me with any questions at  andrew@keeneonthemarket.com.

UPDATE 2.2.2012 I took 20% of my position off for a 33% profit, but I am holding the rest for more upside.  This was a great trade and I still think it will work out.  These Calls are currently worth $.65

 

Reason I like this Trade: Chipotle has been a beast lately and I can not fade this movement, but I can fade the movement of the ATM straddle.  CMG is implying a $20 move and it has only moved 5.5% once over the last 4 quarters.  In this strategy I will make money as long as CMG does not move more than $23.  I think this is a great way to play this stock and we have seen lack of movement in SBUX and MCD which gives me more hope that this trade will work out.  If you have any questions please email me at andrew@keeneonthemarket.com.