Oil Remains Lower After Yesterday's Sell-off 9.18.2012

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Benchmark crude closed at $96.62 a barrel, down $2.38 or -2.4%.  Oil had its biggest intraday swing since early June, hitting a low of $94.65 a barrel, after trading at a session high of $99.52 Monday morning, failing to break through the $100 key technical level. 

The drop in U.S. crude was not as deep as the sell-off in Brent crude oil, which sank from $115.20 a barrel at 1:52 p.m. to $111.60 just 180 seconds later as trading volumes spiked despite the usually quiet Rosh Hashanah holiday.  Brent crude settled down $2.87, or -2.5%, to $113.79 a barrel.  Energy prices had spent the majority of the session trading marginally higher, with support from geopolitical tensions from around the world. 

There is speculation among traders that a potential ‘fat-finger’ trade is responsible for the selling as prices rapidly fell more than $4 in just 20 minutes.  There are also rumors of a strategic oil-reserve release.  These rumors most likely derived from a report done by Reuters on the Obama administration considering a release much larger than the 30 million barrels from last year.  However, the White House has denied these rumors with an official stating, “all options remain on the table, but we have nothing to announce at this time.”

Some analysts simply suggested the price of oil had gotten too high given continued weakness in the global economy, and it’s due for a correction.

Energy traders have enjoyed solid gains in the month of August with Crude-oil prices on the NYMEX up 8.7% from Aug. 1, and Brent crude gaining 7.7% over that period.  Oil recently traded to a high above $100 on Friday partly on concerns that the tension in roiling parts of the Middle East and North Africa could trigger supply disruptions.  Enthusiasm in the oil markets may soon fade however, due to an increasing negative outlook on global demand and high inventory levels.

Perhaps the euphoria over the Fed has worn off.

Crude spent much of the European session in the red, with the October contract off 52 cents, or -0.5%, to $96.10 a barrel. 

Ciro J. Lama is currently an undergraduate studying Finance at the Zicklin School of Business – Baruch College

Twitter: @TraderCantalino

Website: CantalinoAssetManagement.com

Morning Rage 9.18.2012

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Metals futures continue to slide lower from Friday as well. Gold futures are down 10.80 overnight and platinum futures continue their reversal, down 12.60 points. Crude futures stayed relatively still, only losing about 0.38 after getting crushed yesterday, down about three points.

Apple (AAPL|  $699.78) continues to be the diamond in the rough as buyers pushed its price over the $700 mark in after hours trading to $701.60. This comes after another big gain of $8.50 even as the rest of the market slid downward. The sentiment in the market seems to be that iPhone 5 record sales have proved to investors that AAPL has not lost it’s obsessive fans and may not for some time.

My earnings plays for today is FedEx (FDX| $87.53). FeDex reported a rate increase for 2013 amidst an earnings report down once cent from last year for this first quarter. Revenue and operating income grew 3.0% and 1.0% respectively from last year but net income was down 1.0% from last year for this quarter. FedEx has dropped its forecast for annual earnings to $6.20 to $6.60 from $6.90 to $7.40. The stock fell in after hours trading almost 2%. The Sep ATM straddle suggests the stock will move around $2.50 by Friday and a little more than $4.00 by Oct expiration. I am going to wait to see what direction it moves in today and possibly play a spread in that direction for October.

Later today, a housing market index report will be released around 10:00 am EST. Last month, the index rose 2 points reflecting sales of new homes, expected sales in the next six months, and prospective buyers. Expected sales may jump higher because of QE3, so the information may be distorted higher.

Alex Kalish has a master’s degree in economics from Suffolk U.

Questions, comments and suggestions welcome: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com



FedEx Earnings 9.17.2012

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Despite having lowered its forecast, however, the majority of analysts are still confident in the company, with 16 of 22 maintaining a buy rating on the stock. The company has a market capitalization of $28.48 billion, and is currently trading around $90.02 per share. So far this year, the stock is up 7.72 percent.

Ultimately, expect a tough reaction to disappointing earnings tomorrow. Going forward, the company needs to figure out how to reduce costs and improve efficiencies under the current uncertain global economic environment. The company remains fundamentally strong, but it has issues it needs to address, and expect that to reflected in the stock price the remainder of this week.

Brandon Kieltyka is currently an undergraduate studying Finance at Daytona State College.

Twitter: @kieltyka05

Halftime Report 9.17.2012

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Apple is trading up today gaining 5.84 (+0.83%).  Pre-sales of the Apple iPhone 5 have shattered the tech giant’s previous records with 2 million of the phone being sold in the first 24 hours they were available.  The record was held by the iPhone 4s which saw 1 million pre-orders on its first day of availability. Long line are already forming outside at New York City’s 5th Avenue Apple Store in anticipation of the product release.

Things to look for this week:

Tuesday- Housing Market Index, FedEx earnings

Wednesday- Existing Home Sales, AutoZone, General Mills, Adobe Systems, Bed Bath & Beyond

Thursday- Jobless Claims, Earnings from CarMax, ConAgra, Rite Aid and Oracle.

Friday- iPhone 5 Ships.

James Ramelli B.S. in Finance from UIUC. Email: james@keeneonthemarket.com Follow: @Jim_KOTM

Morning Rage 9.17.2012

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I expect the performance of US indices this week to have a more honest QE3 reaction after exploding upward last week. Indices futures for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all down 21.00, 3.25 and 4.25 points respectively.  Metals futures are all down slightly before the market opens with Platinum and Palladium losing the most, 16.10 and 11.70 respectively. Crude futures are down 0.20%.

One of my favorite ETFs to follow in the aftermath of QE3 announcements is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD | $171.8). GLD is down $0.35 in after hours trading after taking a $0.49 gain on Friday. The Oct ATM straddle is priced around $7.00 about a 4% expected move. After the QE3 announcement, a higher probability of currency manipulations around the world will have investors continue to invest in gold.

Apple stock (AAPL | $691.28) is up 2.68 points in pre-market trading to $693.99. Apple set a presale order record with the new iPhone 5. I expect the stock will jump over $700 before the end of the month but, due to the volatility over the past week or so, it may jump back and forth over the $700 line.

Google stock (GOOG | 709.68) was up three and a half points on Friday, only slightly short of its all time high. The stock has hit a resistance point below $715.00. 

Alex Kalish has a master’s in economics from Suffolk U.

Questions, comments and suggestions welcome: alexk@keeneonthemarket.com

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Market Recap 9.14.2012

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In a statement released yesterday the FOMC outlined their plan to purchase $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds every month.  The Committee also announced its intention to continue purchasing long-term debt in an effort to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. The program means that the Fed will add around $85 billion to its $2.8 trillion balance sheet every month until economic conditions improve.  The program has a more or less open-ended time frame.  The Fed will evaluate the strength of the economy and will continue to ease until economic conditions, mainly unemployment, improve. 

Apple (AAPL) hit a new all time high today of 696.98.  iPhone 5 pre-orders opened today selling out in less than a minute.  The tech giant now has a market cap of over $648 billion.  The iPhone 5 is scheduled to be shipped next Friday.

Consumer prices index saw its biggest gain in 3 years. Retail sales were higher for the second month in a row.

Earnings next week:

Tuesday- FedEx

Wednesday- Auto-Zone, General Mills, Adobe Systems, Bed Bath and Beyond

Thursday- CarMax, ConAgra, Rite Aid, Oracle

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