Chris Cruises the Globe 7.31.2012

The Hang Seng rose 1.1%, up four day in a row, to finish the month up 1.8% and 7.3% so far this year.
Banks contributed to the gains with HSBC adding .6% and China Construction bank up 3.4%. The
Shanghai composite did not do so well as it close down .3% for the day and over 5% on the month
making July its worst month since early 2009.

European shares have hit the wall with the FTSEurofirst currently down .1% due to analysts’ warnings
that the ECB may not make as bold of moves as expected. UBS is a top loser down 5.5% as the
investment bank took a hit on Facebook’s market debut. Deutsche Bank was also hit currently down
1.3%. BP took a plunge of 3.3% after delivering the worst results among top oil companies and slashing
5B off its value of US assets. 44% of European companies have reported so far and 47% of them have
missed expectations.

Canadian home improvement company Rona rejected a buyout offer from Lowe’s saying the deal is not
in its shareholders’ best interests. Lowe’s has not ruled out upping the bid or a hostile takeover bid.

Commodities crude, natural gas, silver and gold are all beginning the day pretty flat with each up
under .3%

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

August Seasonal Commodity Statistics by David Cornes

This year, drought fears in July caused grains to shoot through the roof after news of a highly damaged corn and soybean crop. So far this summer has not reflected normal weather conditions, with drought conditions likely to support grain prices throughout the remainder of the summer. If I were going to put on a grain trade, I may decide go long a calendar spread.  From what I have heard about this year’s corn crop, I do not see prices falling before the harvest.

Cattle prices are usually strong in August, continuing through February, while hogs are typically weak throughout the month.

The end of August is typically a bullish period for gold, with silver prices increasing as well. Inversely, copper prices start to decline as the peak summer construction season comes to an end. Thirty year Treasury prices also typically move in the opposite direction of gold and stocks by hovering in a weak month.

The EUR/USD pair is typically weak through about Labor Day while the Swiss Franc is typically at its seasonal low around the beginning of the month. The British Pound is also typically weak during this period continuing through September.

The Yen as the tendency to post lows against the dollar starting in late August through early October as August marks the halfway point in Japan’s fiscal year.

Sugar typically experiences seasonal lows in August is the end of the sugar cane harvest season in Brazil and India and the sugar market is flooded with new supply.

Historically, crude stays strong through August with the possibility of a downward slide toward the end of the month. Natural gas typically rises starting in late July through around December. Consumers use more natural gas when the weather reaches extreme highs and lows.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

linkedintwitter

Doherty at the Close 7.30.2012


Business and consumer confidence in the euro zone fell in July from June, with a significant weakening evident in France and Germany, and a reading on Spain’s second-quarter gross domestic product fell 0.4% from the first quarter, its third quarterly contraction in a row. In the U.K., mortgage lending fell in June to the lowest level since December 2010.

Crude-oil futures eased 0.5% to $89.65 a barrel, while gold futures edged up 0.3% to $1,622.40 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro but fell against the yen. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 1.503% as demand rose.

In corporate news, AT&T rose near 1% after the blue-chip telecom company said it increased its stock-repurchase program by 300 million shares, which represents about 5% of the company’s shares outstanding. Trina Solar (TSL) fell after the solar-panel provider lowered its guidance for the second quarter, citing lower-than-expected shipment volume.


Halftime Report 7.30.2012

S&P 500 futures fell 5.25 points to 1377.25, NASDAQ futures fell 9 points to 2633.00, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 32 points to trade just above the significant 13000.00 level at 13001.00.

This year’s mutated corn crop continued to rise 18.60 cents to $8.1700, with grain prices across the board rising as well.

WTI crude futures were unchanged with a drop of 36 cents to $89.77, and gold futures rose 90 cents to $1618.90.

Shaw Group Inc. (SHAW) gained over 50% after Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. agreed to a buyout of the energy services company.

Apple (AAPL) gained over 2% to $598.32, nearing the significant $600 level after releasing positive download data about its Mountain Lion operating system. If the $600 level is broken, I would be tempted to go long this stock.

Facebook Inc. hovered around last week’s lows and traded around the $23.00 level.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Movers and Shakers – SHAW – 7.30.2012

Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. (CBI) agreed to buy SHAW for a price of $3 billion, or $41 cash and $5 stock over the weekend causing a massive gain in SHAW’s stock price.  The acquisition will create one of the world’s largest energy service firms. SHAW will bring a new nuclear sector to CBI’s portfolio, with the first nuclear reactor design permitted since 1978. This deal marks the largest construction and engineering industry merger of the 79 deals sealed this year with an average premium of around 10%.the deal is expected to be completed in early 2013 after approval from shareholders, management and regulators.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Morning Rage 7.30.2012

The only announcement today in the market is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey.
The report is due out at 10:30am.

The S&P 500 is up once again at 1.91% while 10-year treasuries are down 0.32%.
Oil is down as well at 0.75% and the dollar is up at 0.27%.

What should you watch for today? Gold. All over every finance site there are
chartists and analysts claiming that gold may be ready to make some big moves this
week. It was only up 2.2% at the close on Friday but make sure to watch today and
see if all the hype comes true.

Make sure to check out our weekly webinar and follow us on Twitter
@keeneonmarket!

Chris Cruises the Globe 7.30.2012

The Hang Seng was the top performing Asian Index adding 1.6% on the day. HSBC holdings rose 1.7% ahead of its earnings announcement. HSBC is down 4.7% for July however, up 10.7% on the year. Tingyi, China resources land, and China resources power were the only losers of the day each down between 1 and 1.5% while the biggest gainer was Sands China up 5.71%.

The FTSEurofirst is up 1.1% on the day so far, at 1,068 a level not seen since April. The support comes from Italy’s debt sale of 5.48B euros of government bonds, the rate of which dropped to 5.96% from 6.19% from the auction in June. This escalated Italy’s FTSE MIB 2.7% and Spain’s IBEX 2.1%.

EU competition authorities charge Teva, Servier, Mylan labs and three other companies with blocking generic perindopril drugs, which treats hypertension, from entering the market.

Former FED economist Ward McCarthy suggests the Fed may lower interest paid on reserves to 0%, which should inject cash into the economy. Crude, natural gas and silver are all set to begin the day with slight gains, while gold is down just .05%.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu