Cornes at the Close 7.18.2012

It appears that earnings sentiment has changed after the first week of earnings. Markets were timid going into last week, and started to chart new positive territory after some better than expected earnings. Could rallies such as today’s be too impulsive? When is the Euro crisis going to be priced in?

Corn futures continued to rise on weather concerns. Contracts were trading up 10.80 cents at 790.20 cents.  

WTI crude futures rose 65 cents to $89.87 and gold futures fell $12.80 to $1576.70.

S&P 500 futures gained 8.75 points to 1367.25, NASDAQ futures rose 33.25 points to 2620.25, and Dow Jones Industrial futures rallied 109 points to 12846.00.

I have my eye on EUR/USD futures as they have been hanging around the $1.23 level for some time now. In my opinion I think that it willl break down below $1.20, I am just not sure when that will happen.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Halftime Report 7.18.2012

Natural Gas futures rose with the country’s temperatures gaining 12.6 cents to $2.9220. WTI crude futures continued their rise, gaining a modest 15 cents to $89.37. Gold futures fell with EUR/USD futures, falling $16.30 to $1573.20 and 24 pipps to $1.2273 respectively.

Intel Corp (INTC) and Honeywell Inc. (HON) were at the top of today’s earning reports with strong earnings and high guidance relative to this season’s earnings so far.

Investors were bullish on stocks this morning on hopes of QE3. I think that today’s rally can be easily erased and would not long stock indices until they fall back from the past week’s impulsive gains.  S&P 500 futures rose 8.75 points to 1367.25, NASDAQ futures rose 30 points to 2617.00 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 99 points to 12836.00.

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) fell over 4% after reporting weak earnings. I would assume that their weak earnings are due to traders pulling out of the market, hence less commission revenue.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Movers and Shakers – ROVI – 7.18.2012

ROVI was among a large group of stocks that received analyst downgrades today based on poor guidance. The digital entertainment company lowered its earnings estimates for their August 2nd earnings release to be lower than expected with earnings between 35 and 38 cents and revenue of $158 million. The drops in expectations are due to slower demand for consumer electronics along with slow-moving patent licensing.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Chris Cruises the Globe 7.18.2012

The Hang Seng had another big slide today dropping 1.1%. Securities were among out-performers as
Haitong Securities gained 1.6% and Hong Yuan Securities jumped 6.1%. Chinese power companies,
unlike Japanese, had gains on the day after China’s regulatory commission decided to open the power
sector to private investors, Datang Power added 2.5%. The Index was held back by poor real estate data
showing home prices flat in June after 8 months of decline, to end hopes of policy support. Poly Real
Estate dropped 4.9% and China Vanke lost 3.8%.

Strong earnings reports are right now enough for Europe to begin the day up ignoring the Asian markets.
The FTSE is currently up .2% after positive results from Europe’s banks as Credit Suisse adds 5.5% and
Nordea adds 2.2%. US Firms Goldman Sachs and Coca-Cola’s strong numbers report overnight also
helped prop the European market.

European Construction output comes in at +.1% for May compared to the previous month of -3.7%.

UK unemployment showed a nine-month low of 8.1% with the Olympics helping to create jobs.

Commodities are starting out the day with Gold, silver, natural gas and crude all flat at the moment, the
biggest mover being gold down .33%.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Morning Rage 7.18.2012

The S&P 500 is back up today at 0.74% while 10-year treasuries are both down 1.97% and 0.28% respectively. The dollar still holds strong at 0.30% increase. Bank of America announced their earnings today and beat the streets expectations. The bank said it made 19 cents per share second quarter. The profits are partly due to decreasing reserves to cover bad loans, the bank expects more customers to repay loans on time. Make sure to check out our Webinar this Sunday, 22nd and follow us on Twitter @keeneonmarket!

Doherty at the Close 7.17.2012

In corporate news, Coca Cola (KO) advanced 1.58% after the beverage giant reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. Goldman Sachs (GS gained 1.1% after the investment bank reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 0.9% even after the drug and consumer-products company reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations and lowered its 2012 earnings outlook. Yahoo (YHOO) fell 0.1% after the internet giant named Google executive Marissa Mayer as Chief Executive on Tuesday afternoon.

In U.S. economic news, consumer prices were flat in June, in line with expectations, as energy costs continued to fall. Investors have said the Fed might be less hesitant to roll out additional stimulus measures if inflation is lower. Industrial production picked up in June, rising slightly more than expectations, according to the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, capacity utilization increased slightly but fell short of expectations.

Finally, Facebook (FB) dropped 2.9%, adding to Monday’s 8.1% slide, ahead of next week’s quarterly earnings report for the social-media company, its first ever as a publicly traded company.

Halftime Report 7.17.2012

The yearly U.S. CPI number came in higher than the expected 1.6% and the same as last year at this time at 1.7%.

Corn futures continued its rise, up 9.5 cents on the day to 786 cents.

EUR/USD futures moved against stocks and fell 29 pipps to trade at $1.2257.

WTI crude futures rose 27 cents to $88.70 and gold futures fell $3.00 to $1588.60.

Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee did not give hints on easing as expected, however markets are watching his every move as the conference continues through tomorrow.

Mattel (MAT) shares rose 8% after posting an earnings increase of 20% supported by high sales in Fisher-Price and American Girl dolls.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) lost 7.3% after posting an earnings increase of 22% coupled with weak guidance.

Traders are eyeing EBay Inc. (EBAY) as they will release their results after the close. Analysts estimate that they will post earnings of 55 cents per share and revenue of $3.36 billion. EBAY was trading at $38.66, up 6 cents on the day.

The French telecom company Alcatel-Lucent tumbled 17.5% after releasing weak guidance. Telecom companies were red across the board due to global economic uncertainty.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

Earnings Central 7.17.2012

Amid the deteriorating global markets and European debt crisis, the results were driven by Goldman’s prudent expense management. However, the reported earnings lagged the prior-year quarter’s earnings by 7 cents. Moreover, results declined substantially from $3.92 per share recorded in the prior quarter. Net income declined from $2.1 billion in the first quarter, to $927 million, a significant loss in revenue. Total revenue of Goldman decreased 9% from the prior-year quarter to $6.6 billion, resulting from a decrease in overall businesses, partially offset by higher incentive fees. Within Goldman, the Investment Banking division generated revenues of $1.2 billion, down 17% year over year. However, leading the increase are Institutional Client Services and Investment Management, up 11% and 5%, respectively, year over year.

Coca- Cola

Coca- Cola (KO) reported adjusted operating earnings of $1.22 EPS in the second quarter of 2012, beating the consensus analyst estimate by 2.5%. Earnings were also 4% above the prior-year adjusted earnings driven by positive revenue and volume growth which made up for higher commodity costs and currency headwinds. For Coke, growth was led by a 4% volume rise in emerging markets and with still drinks like water, juices, teas, coffees, energy drinks, and sports drinks. Volume jumped 12% in Eurasia and Africa, 8% in the Pacific, and 3% in Latin America. Net income was $2.79 billion, down from $2.80 billion a year earlier. Net earnings per share rose to $1.21 from $1.20 because of fewer shares outstanding. Excluding items, earnings were $1.22 per share, topping the analysts’ average estimate of $1.19, according to Thomson Reuters. Finally, revenue rose about 3 percent to $13.09 billion. Analysts had expected $12.98 billion.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported lower than expected quarterly earnings sales this morning and cuts its full year 2012 profit forecast, citing negative foreign exchange factors, but nevertheless, quarterly estimates beat Wall Street estimates by a slim margin. JNJ earned $1.41 billion or $0.50 per share in the second quarter. However, that number was essentially halved from the first quarter earnings of $2.78 billion, or $1 per share. Looking forward, expectations for the third quarter have not changed from $1.25 with $5.14 EPS expected for the fiscal year.

Mattel

Mattel (MAT) reported second quarter 2012 earnings of $0.28 cents per share, outperforming Wall Street estimates by 7 cents. Second quarter earnings were also above the year-ago quarter earnings of 23 cents per share. During the quarter, net sales remained flat year over year at $1,158.7 million, but were around $20 million higher than expected. While worldwide gross sales for Mattel Girls & Boys Brands declined 1% year over year, sales for Barbie and Hot Wheels led the uptrend, gaining 5% and 11%, respectively. Additionally, the more expensive brands such as American girl jumped 3% to $68.7 million with the Other Girls Brand skyrocketing 96% year over year. Finally, Mattel repurchased nearly 70,000 shares of common stock for approximately $2 million and declared a quarterly dividend of 31 cents per share, a small dividend yield near 1%.

Reporting after the close:

Intel

Intel (INTC) is expected to report earnings after the close today, July 17, 2012. Consensus analyst estimates expect Intel to report an EPS of $0.52 and 13.45B in revenue. Intel’s Q2 revenue forecast is for $13.1B-$14.1B. Intel’s earnings report will reveal details about the health of the semiconductor market and shed some light on the sudden drop-off in demand some are seeing in the IT space. Wall Street analysts have been trimming their expectations as PC sales continue to decline and Intel shares peaked in early May. Additionally, market seems to now widely expect Intel to guide Q3 below consensus — perhaps to $14.0B-$14.5B, but expect a relief rally for almost anything other than “doomsday guidance.” Stifel recently cut its 3Q revenue estimate for Intel to $14.4B, up modestly from Q2 and well below the $14.8B consensus. Intel has a 59% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 30 of the 51 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within ten trading days of these fifty-one earnings reports is -0.3%. The strongest price movement of -1.1% comes within one trading day when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +4.7% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (opposite reactor). Last quarter the company reported earnings thirteen cents ahead of the whisper number.

Yahoo!

Yahoo! (YHOO) is expected to report Q2 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, July 17, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. Wall Street analyst predicts an EPS of $0.23 and $1.10B in revenue. Yahoo’s earnings for Q2 will be clipped by an anticipated charge of up to $145M to cover severance costs for laying off 2,000 employees, or about 14% of its workforce. Yahoo’s Q2 results are likely to highlight challenges facing new CEO Marissa Mayer, imported from Google (GOOG). Most analysts believe Yahoo’s Q2 revenue will be just slightly above last year’s at this time — helped by gains from the ads that Yahoo has been selling to run alongside the widely watched news, sports, finance and entertainment video clips on its website. But investors want to see some of the same robust growth that Google and Facebook (FB) have enjoyed for years. Yahoo also is expected to get a lift from revenue generated from its large stakes in two of Asia’s most successful Internet companies, China’s Alibaba Group and Yahoo Japan. Yahoo! has a 61% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 56 earnings reports for which we have data). The average price movement (starting at next market open) within ten trading days of these fifty-six earnings reports is +0.1%. The strongest price movement of +2.0% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -6.7% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. Last quarter the company reported earnings five cents ahead of the whisper number.


Thomas Doherty is majoring in Finance and Economics at Villanova University. Thomas@KeeneOnTheMarket.com

 

Movers and Shakers – EDU – 7.17.2012

The Chinese private education services provider boasted a 14% gain in quarterly earnings this morning led by increased enrollment. Revenue forecasts are estimated between $342 and $356 million. Revenue rose 41% to $193 million, higher than analysts expectations of $182-189 million. Along with increased revenues, student enrollment increased by 7.7% in this quarter and have increased 16% since last year.

Analysts remain bullish on EDU after this quarter’s earnings with Wells Fargo setting an outperform rating to shares and Piper Jaffray’s price target of $36-37.00.

EDU’s business model is based off of demand for English lessons in China. Classes range from personalized VIP programs to afterschool tutoring across different subjects.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.