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Halftime Report 7.9.2012

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S&P 500 futures fell 7.75 points to 1344.00, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 84 points to 12643.00, and NASDAQ futures fell 12.75 points to 2596.25.

Spanish 10-year bonds rose to a 7.08% yield.

WTI crude oil futures rose $1.06 to $85.51, erasing some of Friday’s losses.

Corn futures had a massive gain of 38.25 cents after last week’s heatwave, and rain expected to miss key agricultural areas.

EUR/USD futures rose with gold futures with the currency pair trading up 31 pipps to $1.2314 and gold up $8.60 to $1587.50.

Ford Motor Co. (F) and Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) warned investors that this quarter’s earnings will be lower than expected due to lower global demand. F fell 2% and TXN fell 1.26%.

Facebook Inc. will issue its first quarterly earnings as a public company on July 26. This morning FB shares rose 3.34% after releasing that they are developing a job board similar to the one found on LinkedIn (LNKD). FB shares are trading 17% lower than its May 18 IPO. LNKD fell 5.14%.

Thomson Reuters (TRI) fell .95% after buying FX Alliance (FX) for $616 million. FX rose 40.13%.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.

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Movers and Shakers – AGP – 7.9.2012

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Amerigroup’s buyer, Wellpoint, agreed to buy out the healthcare company for $92 a share, or 43% higher than Friday’s close.  Amerigroup has a market cap of $3.12 billion.

Amerigroup, a fortune 500 company,  specializes in serving patients that receive benefits through programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. Wellpoint’s acquisition of AGP would help both companies become more efficient in offering services to senior, disabled and patients with long-term needs. Wellpoint serves over 34 million people through their health plans and an additional 62 million people through its subsidiaries.

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Chris Cruises the Globe 7.9.2012

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China is thrashed this morning with the Hang Seng losing 1.9%, its worst fall in 5 weeks, and the
Shanghai losing 2.4%,down to a 6-month low. Companies are warning of worse than expected profits
and the second-quarter GDP numbers due out Friday are expected to be the worst in at least 3 years.
Angang Steel lost 5.6% after issuing a profit warning, while Dongxiang lost 8.2% for doing the same.

Europe has a similar story as the FTSEurofirst is down .4% on weak global data. Metro, the world’s
number 4 retailer, dropped 6%, the biggest loser among European blue chips. European blue chips are
expected to fall 5.5% year-over-year in the second quarter.

In pre-market US Sirius XM radio added 622042 net subscribers in Q2, a 38% increase from last year, their shares are up 4.7% pre-market.

PepsiCo plans on entering the Yogurt market, at least in the Northeast, through a joint venture with Theo Muller, a German Company. Yogurt sales are on pace to gain 9% this year after adding 7.5% last year.

The Euro is currently up .15% compared to the dollar.

Commodities are looking strong overall this morning with crude, natural gas and gold up while silver is in the red.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

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Morning Rage 7.9.2012

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For our daily stock update, the S&P 500 is down 0.94% as well as the 10-year treasuries, which are down 1.94%. Oil on the other hand is up 0.57% and the dollar is down 0.26%.

So what do you need to watch for today? Earnings reports. Today is the official start of earnings season with Alcoa the first to announce after the close today.
Unfortunately it doesn’t look like many companies will post earnings increases causing the Dow and S&P 500 to go down an estimated 0.4%.

That’s all for today, make sure to follow us on Twitter @keeneonmarket and check out our new Sunday webinars!

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Cornes at the Close 7.6.2012

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I remain bearish on the ES as stock futures took a dive after this mornings 7:30 am CDT jobs number and continued to fade throughout the day, to slightly rise near the close. EUR/USD futures fell about 30 pips following the release, falling to a total of 112 pipps into the afternoon, hitting new lows of $1.2271. I feel that $1.23 was a key support level for the Euro and am curious to see how the $1.22 level will be tested.

S&P 500 futures closed at 1349.50, down 12 points, NASDAQ futures fell 36.75 points to 2605.75, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 123 points to 12709.00.

Jamba Inc. (JMBA) rose 9.87% after expectations that the country’s heat wave would increase sales of their signature smoothies.

Today’s fall Informatica’s (INFA) shares sparked worry across the software industry as Western Europe’s demand is falling. IBM Corp. (IBM) fell 1.99% and Tibco Software (TIBX) fell 6.32%.

Monday is a big day for earnings as Alcoa (AA) kicks off the Q2 earnings season with a negative outlook. Analysts’ consensus is that there is an oversupply in aluminum without guidance for higher demand.

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Trade of the Day (AA) 7.6.2012

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Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if AA closes above $8.57 or July 13, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I sold the Spread for $.57.

Risk: $43 per 1 lot

Reward: $57 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall , but looking for a good risk vs reward that it tests back lower

Notes: I am playing this as an even money bet that AA will sell-off next week on earnings.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.60, but I am leaving this trade on until earnings today after the bell.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  I covered this Spread at $.26 on the sell-off to my measured move target of $8.20.  Taking profits and moving on is how I roll.

Read more about futures by www.keeneonthemarket.com

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Halftime Report 7.6.2012

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The U.S. unemployment rate came in unchanged at 8.2%, and although nonfarm payrolls were stronger than last month, they came in 10K less than analysts’ expectations of 90K.

Gold futures slid $22.00 to $1587.40 and WTI crude futures fell $2.77 to $84.45.

Financial stocks had a steady fall across the sector after the weak jobs number. Bank of America (BAC) lost 1.42% and J.P. Morgan Chase lost 1.25%.

Alcoa Inc. fell 3.14% before their 2012 Q2 earnings release coming this Monday the 9th.

Among today’s biggest gainers, LaCrosse Footwear Inc. (BOOT) rallied 80.97% after Tokyo-based ABC Mart Inc. agreed to buy them out for $20 a share.

Informatica Corp. (INFA) fell 30.09% after lowering the business software developer’s guidance.
EUR/USD futures fell below $1.23 and were trading at $1.2283, down 118 pipps on the day.

David Cornes holds a degree in economics from the University of Montana.