Written by |

Morning Rage 6.28.2012

The Hang Seng fought down its early gains to close down .8%. No one wants to make big bets ahead
of today’s Summit meeting, which marks the 20th since late 2009, let’s hope this is the one people
remember.

German unemployment rises and has an inverse effect on the market hitting the German Dax for a
1.7% loss which has a domino effect on many other European countries. The FTSEurofirst shed .9%
enlightened by the German data. European investors do not seem confident that the Summit will
produce any productive results. Maybe a history lesson on the difficulties of interlocking so many
different economies into one currency based group.

Its looking like a grim morning for financials as so many are already being hit during pre-trade; BSC –
8.6%, JPM -5.2%, BAC -1.5%, MS -1.15% and C -1%.

Crude slides this morning down to just above $80, natural gas is down .75% to 2.75, gold and silver also
in the red both under .6% so far.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Written by |

Doherty at the Close 6.27.2012

Energy stocks drove the gains with Cabot Oil (Gas), QEP Resources (QEP), and WPX Energy (WPX) leading the S&P. However, the energy sector continues to be the only sector negative for the year, at -6.8% from the start of 2012.

Financials, industrials and health-care stocks were also firm on a day of broad-based gains. However, Facebook (FB) fell 2.6% as many analysts at banks that underwrote its initial public offering last month began coverage of the Menlo Park, Calif., social-networking operator. The research was largely expected to be bullish, but “hold” ratings outnumbered the “buy” ratings.

The broad market gains came after a report on pending home sales in May topped expectations to match the highest level of the year, the latest in a string of signs of the housing market’s recovery. Also helping were strong earnings from homebuilder Lennar, LEN +4.75% which projected a slow and steady recovery in the housing market. Lennar rose 4.8% amid a broad rally in homebuilder stocks that included KB Home(KBH) and D.R. Horton (DHI).
Related Reading

European measures moved higher. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished 1.4% higher and France’s CAC-40 index rose 1.7% to snap four-day losing streaks. Asian stocks finished Wednesday’s session mostly higher, led by a 1% rally by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

In other assets, crude oil futures gained 1.1% to $80.21 a barrel, while gold futures edged up 0.2% to settle at $1,577.50 an ounce. The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen but fell against the euro. Demand for Treasurys edged up, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note slightly lower, to 1.619%.

Written by |

Trade of the Day (PAYX) 6.27.2012

Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if PAYX closes above $32.50 July 20 on, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.50 for a total of $.50.

Risk: $50 per 1 lot

Reward: $50 per 1 lot

Chart: Bearish overall has seen selling pressure above this level, the $32.50 level.

Notes: I am playing to the downside and I will make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less than 1.5% on earnings.  It is currently implying a 4.4% move tonight.

UPDATE 7.2.2012  I took half of my position off on Thursday at $.10 and I was looking to take the other half off at $.05 but never got filled.  I will leave the other half of my position on until expiration.

UPDATE 7.5.2012  This Spread is still worth $.10, but I am leaving it on until expiration.

UPDATE 7.9.2012  This Spread is worth $.05 and I am looking to take it off and move to the next trade.

UPDATE 7.21.2012  Quite the rally in PAYX on expiration week, making the Spread that I sold worth $.45.  Good thing I took half off my Spread off at $.10, taking small profits and moving on.

Written by |

Halftime Report 6.27.2012

Homebuilding stocks were bullish after the increase in pending homes sales data. Homebuilder Lennar (LEN) was up almost 5%, KB Home (KBH) was up 4.19% and D.R. Horton (DHI) was up 3.02%.

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) fell over 16% after announcing that 2nd quarter earnings expectations will come in lower than expected as well as lower guidance.

Boeing (BA) rose .89% as it changed their commerical unit CEO.

H&R Block Inc. (HRB) gained 3.38% to $15.60 as higher tax filing volume made up for losses in earnings.

Sealy Corp. (ZZ) rose 8.82% as they posted higher margins based on higher pricing of luxury mattresses.


Written by |

Movers and Shakers (JRCC) 6.27.2012

Additionally, this winter’s warm temperatures did not help spark demand for coal. China’s coal demand has been on a negative slope too. On Monday S&P downgraded their credit rating from B- to CCC+. JRCC has a market cap of $105.07 million. Analysts have suggested that JRCC may have operating challenges given that their return on assets of -2.9%, relative to their competitors with an average of -.7%. JRCC also trades at a lower price/book ratio than the average of competitors.

Written by |

Morning Rage 6.27.2012

MBA purchase applications came in today with more loss showing the composite index down 7% from last week and the purchase index down 1%.

Natural gas and silver are continuing in the green this morning, while gold and crude are currently trading down.

Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market.
Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu

Written by |

Keene at the Close 6.26.2012

Chart Volatility VIX CBOEThere is only one thing that came out of today, the stock market is stuck in a range.  I do not think that the market will be able to break out through the 1280 level to the downside or above the 1350 level to the upside.  We saw positive news on NWSA as they are considering spinning their printing and media into two companies and the stock raged higher to $21.50 before coming off at the end of the day.  Also, we see the EUR hovering around this 1.25 level looking for a breakout and I continue to be short the EUR.  Earnings that I will be looking at for tonight and tomorrow before the bell are GIS, HRB, LEN, and MON.  I think the more we have slow days like today, the more the market will be stuck in a range and I am playing it accordingly