Break-even:  I break-even on this trade if AIG closes at $30.76 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if AIG closes under $30.76 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the Price I sold it for $.24 for a total of $.76

Reason I Like This Trade:  AIG has been very strong this year and the only reason it is selling off today is because the government announced it will be selling $5 billion in stock.  It has had a nice pop off the $30.50 low and I think it can hold that level.  In this strategy, I make money if AIG rallies, is flat, or even sells off a little bit.  

UPDATE 5.8.2012  Even though the stock has not sold off with the stock market, this Spread is currently worth the same price, $.24.   With time on my side, I will leave this trade on.

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With AIG looking strong even during the sell-offs, this Spread is worth $.23, but I will try to capture ful value and watch to expire worthless.

UPDATE 5.10.2012  With AIG rallying today by more than $.40, this Put Spread is now worth $.12, good for a double.  I will try to squeeze every penny out of it and watch it go to zero

UPDATE 5.11.2012  Time is on my side and AIG should close above $31, so I will leave this trade on.  

UPDATE 5.14.2012  AIG is selling off today, but the stock is still holding the $31 level.  With 4 days left after today, I think the selling could be over for the stock market and AIG.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This trade gave me a little sweat this morning as the stock sold off under $31.  I will monitor this trade, but unless I think the stock market is headed way lower, I will leave this trade on until expiration.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  As long as AIG closes above $31 on Friday, I do not have to worry about this position and as long as it stays above $30.76 this trade will be a winner.  

UPDATE 5.22.2012  Just because a trade is a loser, doesnt mean it was not a good trade.  I still think this trade was a good risk vs reward, but expired worth $1, but it worked out better than being LONG the stock.

The Nasdaq has been wavering back and forth across the barrier while the Dow has remained slightly
negative so far

On the commodities side both gold and silver are down just under 1% and in energy oil was hit yet again
down 2% to 96.60 while natural gas has been steadily rising up about 2.5%

Financial are bobbing around currently in the green despite AIG down close to 5%

– Japan’s Nikkei Index was down 2.8% closing at 9,119.14, its lowest in 3 months

– Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.6% to 20,536.59, its worst loss in 5 months

– Germany’s DAX dropped 1.5% to 6463.67

– France’s CAC-40 lost 1.6% to 3,112.49

– Britain’s market were closed for a public holiday

Dow Jones Industrial average future dropped 54 points while NASDAQ 100 futures shed 15.25

China is showing us a silver lining this morning with inflation lowering to 3.3% for April from 3.6% the
previous month, both below the 4% target with output strengthening

-Along with this Toyota sales are up 68% in China compared to a year ago

By ChrisKOTM

Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if GMCR closes at $22 or $32 between now and June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I look at the at-the-money straddle in GMCR in June and it is implying a $5 move either up or down between now and June expiration.  I want to be LONG premium in the back month for earnings and short it in the non-earnings month.  So, I bought the September strangle and sold the June Strangle and will make money as long as GMCR stays in a $22-$32 range.

UPDATE 5.7.2012  With time on my side, this Spread is currently worth $3.65 and increasing in value over 7% over 1 day.  I will leave it on for more potential upside.

UPDATE 5.8.2012  With lack of movement, this spread is increasing in value by the day.  This spread is currently worth $4, but I wll leave this on for more upside profits.  

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With stock moving all over the place, this Spread is currently worth $3.85, but leaving it on with time on my side.  

UPDATE 5.10.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.11.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.14.2012  This spread actually moves around everyday and today this Spread is worth $3.80.  I will leave it on until ar least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This spread is back to be worth $4, but I will leave it on.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  Time is on my side and I will leave this trade on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.70, but it will be left on until further notice.  

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.40 and I am leaving it on to capture my profits as June options go down faster than the September ones. 

UPDATE 6.15.2012  This Spread is still on and is currently worth $3.50.  I will take it off on Friday

Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Any impressive movers: not really, body central corp BODY is down about 45% and for caffeine people
caribou coffee is down over 17%, an interesting side note is coffee is the second most traded commodity
in the world

With many industries down the drug industry is up and herbalife is proving to meet their upgrade as
they are up almost 5% today

And the big news of the day is the hit the non-farm’s payroll gave us this morning of 115,000 compared
to an expected 165,000 and a march of 154,000; this was anticipated by the market however still takes
its toll as does the unemployment rate which rose to 8.2% from 8.1%