Crude Oil futures, which were much higher earlier in this week, fell to lows following the weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET. Oil inventories were  2.84 million barrels last week. 

With the relative weakness in the stock market, we see the growth retail stocks such as LULU, NIKE, AND UA ALL raging higher today.  Strong stocks get stronger and weak stocks such as RIMM down 5% and CHK down 13.7% today.  The movement in the Mini S&P 500 Futures have been small and tight, maybe waiting for the breakout later this week.

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if RIMM closes at $16.15 by January 18, 2013.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if RIMM closes under $16.15 by January 18, 2013.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread can be worth $2.00 minus the Price I bought it for $.15 or a total of $215.  In this trade, I am playing for a takeover and as long as RIMM stays above $9 I will only lose the $.15 that I paid for the spread.

UPDATE 5.3.2012  Thankfully I did not get LONG this stock, because it is getting punished again today to $12.05 and hitting another 52 week low.  This spread is down about $.15 and is worth even money.  I will leave it on, because it is a long-term position not a trade.

UPDATE 5.4.2012 This stock isnt moving in the right direction, but I will continue to keep it on.

UPDATE 5.7.2012  This stock isnt moving which makes me more nervous by the day, but I think RIMM can hold $9, so I will leave this trade on.  

UPDATE 5.8.2012  This spread is not moving as I said this is a POSITION not a trade.  

UPDATE 5.10.2012  This Spread will be left on until further notice and does not need a day to day update.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  This Spread is worth $.17 debit, so I am down a little bit in this trade, but I will leave it on for
a potential buyer of RIMM Stock.

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This Spread is worth a $.50 debit and I am looking to take it off any on any rally. 

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Data in Europe overnight have shares there down from their highs after yesterday’s holiday. The FTSE 100 has lost 0.7%, while the DAX and CAC 40 are at the flat line after opening over 1% higher. Data from Europe showing a downturn in Eurozone manufacturing activity in April is at the root of the sell-off, which has also sent EUR/USD to session lows. 

In the states, S&P front-month futures are down 3.5 to 1,397. Prices are struggling to stay above 1,400 – which could cause a further pull-back ahead of Friday’s numbers. DJIA and NASDAQ futures are experiencing similar dips ahead of the opening bell. 

At 10 a.m. ET, the Commerce Department will release data on Factory Orders. As this is a lagging indicator – data from March, not April – it does not typically impact markets too much.  Economists are looking for a 1.4% drop in factory orders. At 10:30 a.m. ET, the Department of Energy will release weekly petroleum inventory data. Crude Oil is down 0.4% on the session, but holding firm above $105 per barrel. 

The 30-year bond caught a bid this morning, rising 0.7%. The 10-year note is higher by 0.3%. The 30-year yields 3.11%, and the 10-year yields 1.92% at the moment.

– PF Chang’s (PFCB) downgraded to Hold from Buy: Miller Tabak

– TripAdvisor (TRIP) price target to $39 from $31: The Benchmark Company

– Open Table (OPEN) price target to $45 from $50: The Benchmark Company

Yes, we had a rally today, but what sparked it? Was it the belief off selling in May and going away. Or was it all about the average at best ISM reading this morning. I am using today’s high, 1411.75 in the ES futures as a gage or get short.

I continue to think that we are in a trading range, 1335-1420 and until we get that breakout, we will trade sideways. After the bell, we got mixed results as TRIP, Tripadvisor raged higher, but Opentable, OPEN, and BRCM were both off. Taking away that today was the first day of the month, I see more headwinds and think we head lower this month and then get a huge summer rally. Have a great night traders.

Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if HLF closes at $60.70 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if HLF closes above $60.70 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread can be worth $2.50 minus the Price I sold it for $.70 or a total of $1.80.

UPDATE 5.2.2012  With HLF selling off once again today, this spread is decreasing in value by the day.  It is currently worth $.40, but I will leave this trade on, because I do not think HLF can rally through the $60 level between now and May expiration.  

UPDATE 5.3.2012  With this spread currently worth $.10, I am trying to buy it back and take the trade off, because even though the stock is very weak I am not willing to risk $2.40 to make an extra trade for $.10.  Another winner at KOTM

UPDATE 5.4.2012  I closed this trade out this trade for $.10, another winner and time to move on to the next trade.

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