Options Trading Blog
Options Trading Tips and Strategies
Halftime Report for 5.14.2012
The dollar is enjoying the day closing in on its four month high from March of 80.73 currently at 80.69.
Electronic stores are looking strong today with the industry up about 2% being led by GME up 3.54% Radioshack up 2.34% and Best Buy up 1.66%.
The Telecom industry is beginning to erase its gains from last week currently down 1.2%. This is sparked by slacking from AT&T and Verizon both currently trading in the Red.
Groupon is one of the big gainers today up almost 10% at 10.82, while Tii Network Technologies soared today after news of the buyout by Kelta Inc for 33.1m. They are up 42.75% to 2.07.
On the downside is Ancestry.com(ACOM), hit after NBC cancelled its show “Who do you think you are?” which was a big part of the websites promotions.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
Trade of the Day (GRPN) 5.14.2012
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if GRPN closes at $12.30 on May 18, 2012.
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if GPRN closes above 12.30 May 18, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for, $.30 for a total of $.70.
Reason I Like This Trade: GRPN has rallied today, but I want to take advantage of this by Selling a Call Spread into Earnings. If it breaks $12, it could rip way higher, so that is why I want to sell the $12 level, because I do not think stock will rally though there.
UPDATE 5.15.2012 With Groupon rallying hard this Spread is worth $.65. I am glad that I sold Call Spreads and only lost $.35, because if I sold stock I would have lost more money. On to the next trade.
UPDATE 5.16.2012 When GRPN was trading $12.20 this morning, I took this trade off for $.35 for a scratch, moving to the next trade.
Morning Rage 5.14.2012
This easing, which may be too little too late, combined with the possible exit of Greece from the Euro sent markets tumbling in Europe. The FTSEU3, the index of top European shares, hit a 4 month low currently down 2.1%. The Euro is down to 1.2861, its lowest since January 23rd and down 2.7% so far in May. The USD is up around .3%. Commodities futures are also not handling this well with oil currently trading down 1.78%, it hit its lowest so far this year. Natural gas, gold and silver are also taking the hit this morning all currently lower. Time will tell if the US Markets can battle through the grim spectrum coming in from the rest of the world.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
S&P Emini & Unusual Option Activity Daily Vid Recap 5.11.2012
CBOE TV Interview 5.11.2012
Trade of the Day (JPM) 5.11.2012
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if JPM closes at $36.60 on June 15, 2012.
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if JPM closes under $36.60 June 15, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for, $.40 for a total of $.60.
Reason I Like This Trade: JPM has sold off on some terrible news about their investments. I want to take a Bullish stance, but I do not want to risk too much money. If this strategy I can make if JPM is flat, goes down less than 1% or rallies.
UPDATE 5.14.2012 With a sell-off in the stock market and JPM this Put Spread has increased to $.49 in value. I will leave this Spread on and not look to add as I think JPM has plenty of time between now and June to rally back.
UPDATE 5.15.2012 With the stock rallying back today, this Spread is currently worth $.44. I will leave this Spread on as I think JPMorgan sell-off might be overdone.
UPDATE 5.16.2012 This Spread is still worth $.45, but I will leave it on, because I am making an even movey bet that the stock will rally by June expiration.
UPDATE 5.21.2012 With more JPM news coming out everyday I am glad that I didnt not a big position as this Spread is now worth $.80. I will leave this on for a potential bounce higher.
UPDATE 5.22.2012 This spread is worth $.75 and I should probably take it off as I think that JPM and the stock market are headed
UPDATE 5.24.2012 Since this spread can only go to $1, I will leave it on, but not add to it at all, because the banks look so weak.
Halftime Report for 5.11.2012
JP Morgan was downgraded to hold after reporting its loss this morning and joining it was roundy’s from outperform to neutral. Roundy’s first quarter sales were down 2.4% and this sent their stock tumbling to 10.21 down over 16%. I find humor in Pick n’ save blaming the packer’s early playoff loss for their poor sales performance. ProShares are showing some huge gains at the moment with UltraPro leading the charge up over 400% to 49.24. They announced their share splits on Wednesday.
Advocat is up close to 70% to 7.33 after Covington Investments, who is currently a 12% shareholder, offered to buy the company for 50m, or 8.50 a share.
Arena Pharmaceuticals is also up big to 5.86 almost a 60% increase upon recommended approval of the company’s obesity pill Lorcaserin.
Contributer Chris Rygh is currently pursuing his MBA in Wisconsin and has a passion for the Market. Comments can be directed to ryghcw19@uww.edu
It Takes a Village by Ben Hoben
Yahoo is a Disaster
Here’s a prime example of a company that can’t do anything right. There’s an asset that has millions of visitors every day, Yahoo is my homepage, yet they can’t figure out how to monetize it. This has to be one of the most inept boards out there right now. You have an activist investor in Dan Loeb that is trying to affect change at Yahoo yet the board spends their time attacking him. This is the same board that is on their third CEO in just a short time. They fired their last CEO Carol Bartz via a phone call because it was going to leak and they wanted her to find out from them. The next CEO turns out to be embellishing his resume with a degree in Computer Science that he didn’t get. In such a high profile position it is amazing that he hasn’t been fired yet. This kind of public embarrassment will make his credibility with Wall Street nil. My favorite item about this is the board member who led the search for the new CEO got paid $15k to do so. Dan Loeb wants her to return the money and says if they replace board members with his slate one of his members will do this for free. In reality there are a few basic responsibilities of the board and one of them is determining who will steer the ship. I would presume that means one of their basic duties is to hire a CEO when needed. I find it odd that a board member being paid handsomely to be on said board with plenty of cash and stock options, would require an additional $15k to do something she should be doing anyway.
Investing Lesson
What I’ve taken from all this nonsense lately is that unless you have a really transformative CEO such as Steve Jobs, don’t be relying on management quality in your investment thesis. With what we’ve seen recently with companies such as Chesapeake, Yahoo, Avon, and many others is that Peter Lynch was right.
There is no shortage of village idiots running companies today.
The Morning Rage 5.11.2012
Commodity futures have everything, crude, natural gas, gold and silver, down at the moment with gold hitting its lowest of 1573.29 since January 3rd. The world’s number 2 economy, China, continues to slow and worry investors after a weak first quarter performance, The producer price index is down -.2% for April, with adjustment actually at .2%without food and energy. This index measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. Student loans holding you down, think again says the Ivy league. Yes they are more expensive, however they give out grants and you may end up owing less than the typical college. As of next fall students whose family makes under 65,000 per year will pay nothing to attend Harvard according to a recent reuter’s article.