Chris on the Close 5.10.2012

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Europe had strong gains in the finance realm with National bank of Greece and Banco Santander both up over 5%, and Deutsche Bank and Barclays also incrementally up.  The Networking and communication industry took a hit today down almost 10%, riding Cisco all the way, they finished down over 10.5%. ADY overtook Startek and finished with the highest percent gain up almost 49% to 8.71. Tesla motors had a big day with shares up over 11% overcoming a first quarter drop in revenue and profit with news that it’s electric Model S will be delivered in June, a month ahead of schedule.  InfoSpace(INSP) was another heavy hitter up 24% after better than expected first quarter results. A first positive look at the deficit was presented today in the treasury budget report. The treasury had a surplus of 59.1b in April, the first monthly surplus in over 3 ½ years. This stomps the deficit down to 719.9b remarkably lower than the 869.8b a year ago.

Trade of the Day (TLT) 5.10.2012

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if TLT closes at $119.30 on June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if TLT closes above $119.30.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the spread can be worth $1 minus the Price I sold it for $.30 for a total of $.70.  I think that Bonds are headed lower and the unability for TLT to rally above $119 makes this a great risk vs reward trade.  

UPDATE 5.11.2012  TLT has rallied very hard and is above the $119 level, but I will leave this trade on because I think that Bonds are headed lower.

UPDATE 5.14.2012  TLT has rallied HUGE and the only think I can say is I am glad that this is not a HUGE position.  This spread is currently worth $.52, but since it is a June position I will leave it on.  

UPDATE 5.15.2012  TLT has rallied again today, but I think the summer rally will help this trade out.  I will leave this trade on.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  It seems as if this Spread goes up in value, it is currently worth $.60, but I am not looking to add to this position.

UPDATE 5.21.2012  Another trade that went Rogue, I will leave this trade on and hopes that the TLT will sell off.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  Another trade that I should probably have added at $.90 yesterday or look to take it off today at $.70.  I will look to take this trade on and move on.

UPDATE 5.24.2012  With the TLT selling off again today, this spread is worth $.70.  I will leave this trade on.

UPDATE 5.29.2012  I still believe in this trade, I might have not picked enough time for this trade though.  I will leave this trade on, because I have already defined my risk vs reward. 

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This spread is worth $.90 and I will look to take it off as the trade went against me and trying to capture any part of the money back.  

Halftime Report for 5.10.2012

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Bloomberg released a grim consumer comfort index which fell to -40.4 for the week ending May 6. This is a struggling level associated with recessions, down from -37.6 the prior week, its third week down in a row. Personal finances fell to -11.2 its’ weakest since November 11’. Natural gas in storage rose to 30 billion cubic feet. No surprise as this commodity has been up all week. Cisco remains down as premarket trading implied currently at 17.11 down close to 9%. The hot stock today is Startek(SRT) up over 50% to 2.78, with first quarter revenue at 50.9 million, a .6% decrease from last quarter, however revenue offshore increased 18% and their gross margin is up 10.5% this quarter.Losing today are Silicon graphics(SGI), down 25% to 6.87 and not far behind is Clean Diesel Technologies down almost 19% to 2.88.

Morning Rage 5.10.2012

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The Madrid Index was up 2.06% as was today after the Spanish Government took over the country’s 4th largest bank, Bankia, by taking a 45% stake. The IBEX was also up over 2.5% which has lost over 20% since mid-March. This also helped stabilize the Euro up to 1.2966 after hitting lows yesterday. Crude is lower yet today due to pressure from china while natural gas is up. Gold is wavering however currently up .50 to 1594.20 while silver remain down.  Cicso is one to watch today down about 8% in premarket trading although its revenue climbed 6.6%. The trade gap is at a -51.8b for March from February’s 45.4b.  New unemployment claims are at 367k, with new claims down 1k. This is still higher than the 360k levels through March. Import pricing is down -.5% from a prior change of .4%, these are for product that are bought in the US but produced abroad.

Trade of the Day (RENN) 5.9.2012

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Break-even:  I break-even on this trade if RENN closes at $5 or $7 on May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable I lose money on this trade if RENN closes under $5 or above $7 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount I paid for the Spread $.30.  

Reason I Like This Trade:  RENN has earnings after the May expiration, so anytime I can buy an earnings month and sell a front month options for as small premium as this, I think it is a good trade.  If RENN stays within a $1 range for the next 7 trading days then this trade will work out.  

UPDATE 5.10.2012  With time on my side and RENN looking as if it will not break out from $6, I will leave this Spread on until expiration.

UPDATE 5.11.2012  This spread is not increasing in value as days go by, I thought it would.  Hopefully next week the May options will Decay more.  

UPDATE 5.14.2012  With the BIG Facebook IPO on Friday, the volatility is jacked in RENN front monrth.  Hopefully the stock will not move much and this trade will be Profitable.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This spread is finally working out the way I thought it would.  It is currently worth $.45, but as stated above I will leave it on until Friday. 

UPDATE 5.16.2012  I will once again leave this Spread on until Friday, but this Spread is currently worth $.40

UPDATE 5.21.2012  There was a reason why front month volatility in RENN, bc movement was expected.  With RENN selling off under $5, this spread went to $.25.  I need a rally higher in order and there is a chance when RENN has earnings this month.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  I am looking to take this trade off if I can get a rally in Facebook and RENN or even a POP in earnings.

UPDATE 5.24.2012  This stock has sold off and I am looking to take this position off at any rally.

UPDATE 5.29.2012  I still have this trade on and looking to work out of it for a small loser.

Read more about reason by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Chris on the Close 5.9.2012

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Sugar glimpsed the light today up .25% after hitting a 20 month low of 20.13 midday. Coffee also finished with a slight increase to 1.7505, Brazilian coffee faces a small risk of frost this year, last year freezes led to a 34 year high in prices. Among big gainers today were CFBK up 42% to 3.39 and SODA kept strong finishing up over 27% at 37.21.
Heading the losing side were MEMS and CQB down close to 40% and 30% respectively. Agrium inc, North America’s biggest farm-products retailer, reported a higher than expected quarterly result today with retail sales up 35%, however shares dropped more than 2%. Shares are up over 20% this year despite a poor showing in this sector this week.