Closing with Chris 5.7.2012

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VRTX stayed strong and finished up over 55% while CTSH stayed down over 19%
Other big movers were EIPL up 75% to 13.02 and INSM up 51% to 4.10 and in the reverse were PETS down almost 20% to 11.07
PepsiCo finished up 1.2% to 66.69 upon news that Morgan Stanley upgraded its view on the US beverage industry to attractive
The S&P financial sector finished up despite the European worries with BAC up 3% to 7.97 and Goldman Sachs also finishing up 1.2% to 110.29, Analysts point the positive to a possible bailout for the Troubled Spanish bank Bankia as a reason for the boost
In reports today Consumer credit outstanding jumped 21.4 billion in March from 9.8 billion in February leaving us at 2.54 trillion, the gain is concentrated mostly with student loans rather than revolving credit, however that also rose

Trade of the Day (AIG) 5.7.2012

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Break-even:  I break-even on this trade if AIG closes at $30.76 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable:  I lose money on this trade if AIG closes under $30.76 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount the Spread can be worth $1 minus the Price I sold it for $.24 for a total of $.76

Reason I Like This Trade:  AIG has been very strong this year and the only reason it is selling off today is because the government announced it will be selling $5 billion in stock.  It has had a nice pop off the $30.50 low and I think it can hold that level.  In this strategy, I make money if AIG rallies, is flat, or even sells off a little bit.  

UPDATE 5.8.2012  Even though the stock has not sold off with the stock market, this Spread is currently worth the same price, $.24.   With time on my side, I will leave this trade on.

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With AIG looking strong even during the sell-offs, this Spread is worth $.23, but I will try to capture ful value and watch to expire worthless.

UPDATE 5.10.2012  With AIG rallying today by more than $.40, this Put Spread is now worth $.12, good for a double.  I will try to squeeze every penny out of it and watch it go to zero

UPDATE 5.11.2012  Time is on my side and AIG should close above $31, so I will leave this trade on.  

UPDATE 5.14.2012  AIG is selling off today, but the stock is still holding the $31 level.  With 4 days left after today, I think the selling could be over for the stock market and AIG.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This trade gave me a little sweat this morning as the stock sold off under $31.  I will monitor this trade, but unless I think the stock market is headed way lower, I will leave this trade on until expiration.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  As long as AIG closes above $31 on Friday, I do not have to worry about this position and as long as it stays above $30.76 this trade will be a winner.  

UPDATE 5.22.2012  Just because a trade is a loser, doesnt mean it was not a good trade.  I still think this trade was a good risk vs reward, but expired worth $1, but it worked out better than being LONG the stock.

Halftime Report for 5.7.2012

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The Nasdaq has been wavering back and forth across the barrier while the Dow has remained slightly
negative so far

On the commodities side both gold and silver are down just under 1% and in energy oil was hit yet again
down 2% to 96.60 while natural gas has been steadily rising up about 2.5%

Financial are bobbing around currently in the green despite AIG down close to 5%

The New Weeks’ Rage 5.7.2012

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– Japan’s Nikkei Index was down 2.8% closing at 9,119.14, its lowest in 3 months

– Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.6% to 20,536.59, its worst loss in 5 months

– Germany’s DAX dropped 1.5% to 6463.67

– France’s CAC-40 lost 1.6% to 3,112.49

– Britain’s market were closed for a public holiday

Dow Jones Industrial average future dropped 54 points while NASDAQ 100 futures shed 15.25

China is showing us a silver lining this morning with inflation lowering to 3.3% for April from 3.6% the
previous month, both below the 4% target with output strengthening

-Along with this Toyota sales are up 68% in China compared to a year ago

By ChrisKOTM

Trade of the Day (GMCR) 5.4.2012

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if GMCR closes at $22 or $32 between now and June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I look at the at-the-money straddle in GMCR in June and it is implying a $5 move either up or down between now and June expiration.  I want to be LONG premium in the back month for earnings and short it in the non-earnings month.  So, I bought the September strangle and sold the June Strangle and will make money as long as GMCR stays in a $22-$32 range.

UPDATE 5.7.2012  With time on my side, this Spread is currently worth $3.65 and increasing in value over 7% over 1 day.  I will leave it on for more potential upside.

UPDATE 5.8.2012  With lack of movement, this spread is increasing in value by the day.  This spread is currently worth $4, but I wll leave this on for more upside profits.  

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With stock moving all over the place, this Spread is currently worth $3.85, but leaving it on with time on my side.  

UPDATE 5.10.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.11.2012  In theory, everyday that by, this Spread should increase in value if the stock does not move.  Today, it is worth $4.05, but I will leave it on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.14.2012  This spread actually moves around everyday and today this Spread is worth $3.80.  I will leave it on until ar least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.15.2012  This spread is back to be worth $4, but I will leave it on.

UPDATE 5.16.2012  Time is on my side and I will leave this trade on until at least June expiration.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.70, but it will be left on until further notice.  

UPDATE 6.4.2012  This Spread is still worth $3.40 and I am leaving it on to capture my profits as June options go down faster than the September ones. 

UPDATE 6.15.2012  This Spread is still on and is currently worth $3.50.  I will take it off on Friday


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