Chart Glance: On a daily chart, CMG closed above the Ichimoku Cloud at $331.58 on December 20, 2011, providing a strong buy signal. Since then, the price has rallied above resistance at $350 and moved in a straight line higher.On dips, support will come at $420.55, the Tenkan line from the Ichimoku Cloud. The 50-day moving average is at $398.43; 100-day at $367.69; 200-day at $342.67. The 200-day moving average was strong support in August, October, and November 2011.

Until CMG closes in the Ichimoku cloud, it remains in a clear uptrend. Should prices begin to stall, it might be time to take profits – but until then, we would stay with the trend.

Chipolte Mexican Grill reports earnings on April 19. Earnings per share for the first quarter are expected to be $1.92 a share from $1.46 a share in the year ago period, while first quarter revenues are expected to gain to $630.24 million from $509.38 million for the same quarter last year. 

This data is not going to get traders excited… just not much there. At the moment, S&P futures are up 2 points, trading 1,366, while DJIA futures are higher by 19 to 12,763. Crude oil is flat on the session, while Natural Gas gained slightly, but is holding below $2. In terms of Natural Gas, the weekly inventory reports come out this morning at 10:30 a.m. ET. Until producers start to shudder production, prices could fall further.

Currency markets are not much changed overnight either, with EUR/USD holding in a range between 1.31 and 1.3150. USD/JPY is trading just below 81 figure.

More News and Numbers:
– Ahead of its earnings report, Google (GOOG) is indicated 0.6% higher

– AT&T (T) was upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan, sending shares of the telecomm 1.2% higher

– McKesson Corp (MCK) won a contract valued at $31.6 billion from the Department of Veteran’s Affairs. Shares are 4% higher

– Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) price target raised to $480: Argus

– Nokia (NOK) cut to Hold: SocGen

– General Dynamics (GD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy: Lazard

– Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) downgraded to Hold from Buy: Canaccord Genuity

– PacWest Bancorp (PACW) price target of $25: FBR Capital

Natural Gas broke below $2 today, hitting a low of $1.976, before closing at $1.981. Year-to-date, Natural Gas is down 33.7%. Nat Gas is down 52% over the past year, slightly below Cotton’s 55% decline as the worst-performing major commodity. While these might seem like steep declines, it looks like there is no end in sight to Nat Gas’ declines.

In treasury markets, the 30-year bond and 10-year note yields rose slightly. EUR/USD rose slightly, though finished the day in the middle of its range near the 1.31 figure. USD/JPY closed the day near the 81 figure. 

Tomorrow, earnings are ramping up with Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) and Rite Aid (RAD) before the bell. Google (GOOG) reports after the bell. Analysts expect GOOG to report earnings of $9.62 per share compared with $8.08 a year ago. In today’s trading, GOOG gained 1.5% to $635.96.

On Friday, JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report before the bell. 

 Bonds yields are higher today, with the 30-year bond and 10-year note trading lower by 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively. EUR/USD was trading higher on the session, though it surrendered some early gains. Halfway through the U.S. session, prices were hovering near the 1.31 figure.

Other News and Numbers:
– The Department of Justice is suing Apple (AAPL) and publishers (CBSA, NWSA, and PSO among them) for colluding on the price of e-books. AAPL is trading flat on the day following the news

– VMWare (VMW) announced that its CFO would be leaving. VMW is down 2.3% to $107.80

– Nokia (NOK) warned on earnings earlier saying that their smartphone might lose connectivity. NOK is lower by 13.4% on the news

Alcoa’s (AA) earnings last night certainly helped set the stage. Many, including us at KOTM, were expecting a disappointing number from the aluminum-producer. AA posted a profit of $0.10 per share, compared with expectations for a loss of $0.04. AA is indicated 5.7% higher at $9.86 in the pre-market.

In currencies, we are not surprised to see EUR/USD higher this morning – as we wrote yesterday. EUR/USD prices showed surprising resiliency over the past two sessions to the sell off in risk. The pair gained 0.5% this morning to 1.3130. USD/JPY is toward the top of its tight range, holding just below the 81 figure. 

Crude futures are higher this morning, though with inventory data out at 10:30 a.m. ET, prices may be reluctant to rebound further. Futures are up $0.30 to $101.32 at the moment. Bears continue to point to the $100 figure as a key level to the downside. We would not be surprised to see that level tested following the data this morning. Natural gas prices are also higher, by 0.2%.

Bond yields are slightly higher overnight as the 30-year bond prices are lower by 0.4%. 10-year note futures are down 0.2%.

At 2 p.m. ET, today, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.  

– 1-800-Flowers (FLWS) coverage initiated at buy with price target $5: Noble Financial

– Vocus (VOCS) price target moved to $26 from $32: Stifel Nicolaus

– SMSC (SMSC) price target moved to $32 from $26: Needham

Gold also saw a modest increase as front-month futures gained 1.1% to $1,662 per ounce. Silver saw similar gains, while Platinum dropped 1.15% to below $1,600 per ounce. This widens the Gold-Platinum spread that has historically seen Platinum prices at a premium to Gold. That relationship changed near November 2011.

Oil prices fell in tandem today as well. Tomorrow’s inventory figures could be the impetus to push oil below $100 per barrel – if we see another “risk off” (we hate that term) day. Last week’s inventory figures showed that output was at a 13-year high. Further output gains or inventory builds could have oil testing year-low levels near the $95 level.

The one question we have about today’s price action, though, is: Why didn’t recent correlations with EUR hold? The currency has not participated in this two-day sell off that has engulfed equity markets. Something has to give – either this is a fake-out on the equity front; or the EUR is in store for a decline below the 1.30 level. Every time it looked like EUR/USD was going to drop today, new buyers came in, leaving the pair at 1.3085. We would not be surprised to see this move higher tomorrow barring negative news on the equity front.

Oh, one last thing, Alcoa (AA) earnings are released after the bell today. Try not to draw too much from that… the stock is not indicative of earnings season.