Halftime Report for 5.4.2012

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Any impressive movers: not really, body central corp BODY is down about 45% and for caffeine people
caribou coffee is down over 17%, an interesting side note is coffee is the second most traded commodity
in the world

With many industries down the drug industry is up and herbalife is proving to meet their upgrade as
they are up almost 5% today

And the big news of the day is the hit the non-farm’s payroll gave us this morning of 115,000 compared
to an expected 165,000 and a march of 154,000; this was anticipated by the market however still takes
its toll as does the unemployment rate which rose to 8.2% from 8.1%

Chris on the Close

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Linked in had a surprising jump and after hours are up over 9%

The M2 money supply showed a quite a change to a -40.5 Billion from last week’s 26.4

Bloomberg released its consumer comfort index which came in at a -37.6 for week ending April 29 th
from a -35.8 the previous week which had taken it to a 4 year high. Personal finances and measure
of the buying climate were the two of the three components that were down indicating a current
somewhat pessimistic outlook by consumers

The EIA Natural gas report posted an increase in natural gas storage of 28 billion cubic feet(bcf) during
the week of april 27th, 30 billion was expected. This less than expected increase could indicate a higher
than expected demand as it settled up 4% to $2.34 per MMbtu

The San Francisco Fed president spoke today mainly addressing unemployment; his belief is that it is
high due to cyclical weakness, it was rather inconclusive

Thanks for checking in, we will do it again tomorrow

Corporate Governmence –

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Where’s the Oversight?
These big mutual fund companies such as American Funds, Vanguard, and Fidelity are basically useless when it comes to holding boards accountable. How many times have you seen one of these companies file a 13D and take an activist position?
The reason I blame the mutual funds is because they accumulate a ton of assets under management from investors 401k’s and monthly mutual fund purchases. I can’t think of many times where one of these companies, who might hold 7% – 10% of the outstanding shares, ever takes on management.
Most mid-cap and large-cap stocks have institutional ownership of over 80% of the shares outstanding. They have the muscle to stop the sweetheart deals and good ‘old boys clubs on these boards but choose to do nothing.

The boards of most companies are filled with presidents of universities, CEO’s of other companies, former politicians, and other “celebrity” type directors. Rarely do you see anybody that has years of industry experience. The board has the fiduciary duty to protect the shareholders but in essence it is the CEO who runs everything and the boards are yes men and women.

Evil Hedge Funds?
The politicians and media love to portray the hedge fund industry as gun-slinging high rollers out trying to break up companies for a quick buck ala Pretty Woman. While there are some quick draw McGraw traders out there, a vast majority of hedge funds are longer term investors.
They get vilified in the media of being wealthy fat cat tax evaders but at least they are going after crappy managements. There are some great activist investors out there that have the capital to take a 10% stake in a company and force change upon horrible managements. This is something you don’t see the mutual fund industry doing.

The Need for Change
Hopefully people wake up to these cozy relationships on the boards and the self dealing that many insiders partake in and get angry.
McClendon may have started Chesapeake but once he took it public it wasn’t his company anymore. However he and the board have treated it that way. Who in the world has ever heard of a company buying a CEO’s map collections for hundreds of millions? Who ever heard of the CEO skimming off the top of every well drilled? Who ever heard of a CEO running a hedge fund right alongside the company? It’s amazing he hasn’t even been fired yet.
Unfortunately more of this goes on than most people realize or imagine. Until more people get angry about it, it will continue.

Unfortunately I own CHK. Fortunately it’s only been a round-tripper for me as I bought a long time ago for $19 and change and have ridden it up and back down again. There’s valuable assets there, but as long as McClendon’s at the reigns they are his assets.

Trade of the Day (GLD) 5.3.2012

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if GLD closes at $158.49 or $171.51 by June 15, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if GLD closes under $158.49 or above $171.51 by June 15, 2012.  I like this trade, because I am risking $349 per 1 lot to make $1000 and I make money on this trade if stock stays flat to $170.  I am catching a falling knife with this one, but I think this is good risk vs reward and I always like to play GLD to the upside.   

UPDATE 5.7.2012  With GLD rallying a little bit this trade is currently worth $3.80 and already good for a 8% winner in 3 days.  I will leave this trade on, because I think there is more upside in Gold

UPDATE 5.8.2012  With GLD getting crushed by more than $3 today, this Spread is decreasing in value as well.  This Spread is now currently worth $2.50, but I will leave it on as I remain bullish Gold.    

UPDATE 5.9.2012  With GLD down again today, this Spread is currently worth $2, but I will leave it on as I think Gold could get a bounce.

UPDATE 5.10.2012  With GLD getting a small bounce today, this Spread is worth $2.15, but once again I will leave it on for more potential profits.

UPDATE 5.11.2012  GLD is selling off and this Spread is worth $1.91, but I still think Gold will work higher this summer.  

UPDATE 5.14.2012  With GLD selling off once again this Spread is now worth $1.33.  I will not add to my position yet, but getting close.  

UPDATE 5.16.2012  I still remain bullish in Gold, but risk vs reward is defined so I will leave this trade on.  It is one of my smaller positions and actually added to my position today at $.93.  Risking $93 per 1 lot to make $1000 is a great risk vs reward play.

UPDATE 5.22.2012  GLD and Gold got a nice POP and the Spread is now trading $1.80, so I am actually up money on this trade, because I added more.  I took this trade off yesterday as I was frustrated with any LONG positions.  

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