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Meadows on the Markets 4.5.2012
The US$ and bonds finished the week with positive returns, while Crude, NASDAQ, and bonds finished relatively unchanged. Natural gas fell another 1.4% this week, while gold slid 2.4%.
Here are how markets closed on the week:
– US$: +1.4%
– 30-year bond futures: +0.4%
– 10-year note futures: +0.3%
– NASDAQ futures: +0.1%
– Crude oil: +0.1%
– S&P futures: -0.9%
– DJIA futures: -1.2%
– Natural Gas: -1.4%
– Gold: -2.4%
There was some interesting news released Thursday. Facebook has apparently decided to be listed in the NASDAQ under ticker FB. Shares are expected to debut in May.
In addition, Warren Buffet is said to have guarded Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) against higher rates according to Moody’s. Moody’s says that BRK’s losses as a percentage of shareholder equity would be the lowest among 27 insurers.
By Mark Meadows
S&P Emini Daily Vid Recap 4.5.2012

Halftime Report for 4.5.2012
In commodities, Crude rallied sharply in early U.S. trading and sits up 1.2% near $103 p/barrel. Natural gas, after rising in prior sessions, fell 2% to below $2.10 p/bcf.
Gold prices are also reversing some of yesterday’s losses, with futures up 0.8% to $1,626.
Throughout the rest of the trading day, we are looking at a whole lotta nothing. There could be some position liquidation towards the closing bell, since the March jobs report is released tomorrow morning. Analysts are calling for a 203,000 jobs. We’ll have to wait until Monday to figure out how equities will react.
Morning Rage 4.5.2012
Gold has gained $10, or 0.66%, after more than 3% losses yesterday. Crude futures are unchanged.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near 17 today, with the ETF that tracks the VIX, VXX, higher by 1.9%.
We are expecting trading to be slow today ahead of the holiday tomorrow. As a reminder, the Department of Labor will still release the monthly employment report tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The ADP report issued this week showed 209,000 private sector jobs were created in March, compared with an expectation of 203,000 for tomorrow’s report.
If trading is slow, we recommed taking a look at “The Dimon Manifesto,” from Bloomberg. Among the gems in Dimon’s annual letter: “I have no doubt that our own actions made the recovery worse than it otherwise would have been.”
Bloomberg also reports some interesting figures: JPM makes about 1.5 cents p/share trading equities; $70 p/trade in foreign exchange; and $1,500 p/trade in credit markets. Just 10% of trades generate more than $50,000.
Keene at the Close 4.4.2012
The S&P 500 futures had a tight range intraday despite the huge sell-off. The Vix was only up $.75 and I still think as long as the futures can hold 1378-1380 we rally higher. Volume was weak, along with oil and gold taking it on the chin and down more than $57.
After the bell we got strong earnings from Bed Bath and Beyond with Carmax reporting tomorrow am. With a 3 day weekend, look for an inside day tomorrow with more lite volume. Have a great night and Monday we will launch brand new subscriptions.
Andrew Keene
KeeneOnTheMarket.com
S&P Emini Daily Vid Recap 4.4.2012
Trade of the Day (KMX) 4.4.2012
Break-even: I breakeven on this trade if KMX closes at $32.45 or $36.55 by April 20, 2012
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if KMX closes under $32.45 or above $36.55 by April 20, 2012. The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread, $1.00 minus the price I sold it for $.55 for a total of $.45 per 1 lot.
Reason I Like This Trade: I like selling premium instead of buying it for earnings. This trade is an even money bet that KMX will close between $32.45-$36.55
UPDATE 4.9.2012 This spread is currently worth $.45, but I think that it has more potential profits if the stock can get some legs and rally so I will this trade on.
UPDATE 4.16.2012 Another trade that I am glad I took off right after earnings for $.45, becuase the stock has sold off even more after the fact. Moving on to the next trade.
UPDATE 4.23.2012 I DID NOT HAVE THIS POSITION ON, BUT IT EXPIRED ON FRIDAY AT FULL VALUE, $1. MOVING TO THE NEXT TRADE.
Halftime Report for 4.4.2012
Despite the Fed’s news yesterday that additional quantitative easing was unlikely, the 10- and 30-year Treasuries are higher, each up 0.33%. Gold futures are taking a large hit – down 3%, while Crude futures lost 2.2% to $101.70. Today’s Crude inventory data saw inventories rise nearly 4-times more than expected, while output rose to its highest level since 1999. Traders could target support at the $100 p/barrel mark in Crude over coming sessions.
ISM Non-manufacturing data was released this morning at 10 a.m. ET, coming in lower than expected. The March Non-manufacturing index dropped to 56 from 57.3 in February. Looking to data later in the week, traders will eye Friday’s employment report, though equity markets will be closed.
More News and Numbers:
– Yahoo (YHOO) dropped 1% despite announcing it would cut 14% of its staff
– CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) gained 9% to 17.10. VXX, an ETF tracking the VIX, rose 5.4%
– JPM is lower by 2.6%. Today, JPM announced it would settle the CFTC suit over Lehman for $20mln
– SanDisk (SNDK) shares fell nearly 10%. SNDK said quarterly sales would come in $100mln lower than previously forecast
Trade of the Week (TK) 3.15.2012
Reason I like this Trade: I saw someone buy 30,000 TK Jan13 35 Calls for $1.80, so I knew I had to jump on board for a LONG position. This is the largest open interest volume I have seen since Jan 2011. This is the kind of trades I wait all week for, then pounce. I will be looking to get out of this trade as the stock trades higher. Please feel free to email me with any questions at andrew@keeneonthemarket.com.
UPDATE 3.19.2012 With the stock rallying to $32, I took off 25% of my position off at $2.25, but these Calls are still worth $2.50. This was another HUGE winner, but I want to let my profits run.
UPDATE 3.22.2012 With the stock rallying even higher yesterday, I sold another 25% of my Calls out for $3.10. So, I have sold 50% of my position for a 40% profit, and I still have a 50% position and the Calls are currently worth $2.80
UPDATE 4.2.2012 With the stock rallying to $35, I sold another 25% of my position at $3.50. I am offering the final piece of my calls at $4.30. What a great trade and realizing that sometimes owning Calls does work out.
UPDATE 4.3.2012 I sold my remaining 25% at $4.30 for a nice profit. The average sale was $3.2875 for a 96.3% gain ($1.6125) on the position.