The EUR/USD shorts are running for the hills as the USD is getting smacked around, trading under the 79.50 level. After Bernanke hints at more QE, Gold and Silver both caught a bid trading higher by more than 1% this morning. Also, WTI Crude is higher today after Friday’s parabolic move. Supposedly, Iranian Oil Supplies came in lower than analysts expected. Today, definitely feels like a “Risk-On” day, but we all know how fast the “risk on” trade can change.

Monday Events:

Singapore IP (Feb): Consensus expects 4.1% Month over Month

Israel CB Meeting: We expect no change from 2.50%.

Argentina GDP (Q4): We expect 7.8% YOY vs consensus of 7.5% (9.3% Q4).

Ben Bernanke and Draghi Speak today.

ES has been trading in a tight 15 point range this morning (1380.50-1395.25). EUR/USD is trading near the highs of the session trading at the 1.3275 level. Crude Oil RAGED higher today moving more than 3 handles from $105.20-$108.25 due to Iranian Export Data. Gold is up 22 Pts or 1.4% for the day trading comfortably above the 1660 level. BATS crashes from $15.75 – $0.04 in minutes.. Circuit Breakers still in tact?  Also, APPLE, YES APPLE, HALTS because of a fat finger mistake. Now I am starting to understand the mind-process and fear of the “Retail-Investor” investing in “Risky Assets.”

 Tomorrow should be an interesting with Ben Bernanke talking for the third time this week.  I think that the stock market should rally into the end of the month and end of the quarter, but there are only 6 trading left until the quarter is over.  We continue to see Bullish Call activity in the Oil Sector and saw Put Sellers in X, PBR, and OIH today. And as always, I am keeping an eye on AAPL to see if it can sustain this all important $600 level.  Have a great night guys.

Chart Glance: Broader Moving Averages prove that GOLD is still in a down trend and momentum indicators do not show an oversold stock as of yet. After a multi-month consolidation between 115-100. GOLD seems to have lost its footing with the bearish gap down today. A lot of the Gold mining stocks are extremely volatile and if you do not have a strong stomach then you should definitely consider staying away.

50DMA-($111.17) 100DMA- ($109.74) 200 DMA- ($102.74)

Support 1:$92.55 Support 2: $89.92

GOLD is a primary component of the senior minors (GDX). GOLDs Geo-Political risk in Mali is currently compromising the interest in GOLD stock. Gold was downgraded to underweight today at JPM. A lot of the traders I know are all saying the same thing. GOLD (physical commodity) will dip below $1600 (major support) level and bounce to …. Turkish Government is seeking to transfer private Gold holdings into its current banking system (Reuters reports). Also, Thomson Reuters GFMS stated, “Gold $2,000/oz is possible.” Keep in mind, “gold is the best hedge for inflation.”

Priceline is trading above $700 and looks to be going higher based on making higher-highs and lower-lows. GMCR is up 5 pts at the $55.66 level. Also, SBUX is following suite.

Break-even: I break-even on this trade if HD closes at $50.78 by April 20, 2012.

Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if HD closes under $50.78 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can I can lose is the $.78 that I paid for the Calls.

Reason I Like This Trade: When HD was trading $49.62, I saw a customer buy 3549 April 50 Calls for $.79, so I knew that I want to jump on the LONG HD bandwagon even though the stock traded its 52 week high today.  In Our “LIVE” Trading room talked about this trade in real-time, but have to be in the room to hear to LIVE.   

UPDATE 3.22.2012 This was a day trade for me and when I saw the stock trade higher, I sold out of my Calls for $.88.  Taking profits and moving to the next trade.  

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