Crude Oil was one of the only commodities that showed weakness yesterday in trading. Perhaps Geo-Risk Premium is coming out Crude Oil as Syria’s and Iran’s hostile environment is calming down a little and Crude Speculators are taking profits now and not before the next big Crude Sell off. Gold is approaching $1,700/oz after yesterday’s Bernanke hints at the new “QE” and today’s urging by the OECD to increase the Euro-zones ‘firewall’ by another $1.3 trillion. Gold is above 200 day moving average (simple) at $1,687/oz after yesterday’s biggest daily gain since January 2012. The gains came after Ben Bernanke warned investors of the risks to the fragile US economic recovery and signalled the Fed would keep interest rates low – aka buy gold for an inflation hedge.

Economic Events:

US Consumer Confidence (Mar).

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan).

Turkey CB Meeting and Hungary CB Meeting.

Ben Bernanke Lecture

Italian Bond Auction (2/10yr)

It is un-American to be short the stock market.  I talk about this all the time and my goal is to make the most amount of money possible, and every dip should be and has been bought.  Yes, every couple of weeks we shake the week hands out, but the the fact is america is the best house in a bad neighborhood.  Today the stock market took out all 3 of my upside targets in the S&P 500 futures of 1400, 1408, then 1411 and closed at the highs of the year at 1415.  I think more window dressing continues and will rally for the rest of the week.  After that, earnings come into play and should be strong, so it’s time to jump on this train before it’s too late.

Break-even: I break-even on this trade if P closes at $11.70 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if P closes under $11.70 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can I can lose is the $.70 that I paid for the Calls.

Reason I Like This Trade: When P was trading $10.46, I saw a customer buy 2439 Pandora May 11 Calls for $.70.  I then saw more unsual options activity and paper sell May 11 Puts and April 10 Puts.  I knew that I wanted to get LONG, but I always like to define my risk vs reward so I bought Calls since I think the stock will move higher. 

UPDATE 4.9.2012 These Calls are currently worth $.25 and this trade has not worked out very well.  Since I know I can only lose $.25 more cents I will leave these Calls on.

UPDATE 4.11.2012 These Calls have now turned into a lottery ticket and another stock where I have purchased Calls and have not worked out very well.  I will look to take this trade off with any rally in Pandora.  

UPDATE 4.23.2012  Another worthless Calls as these Calls are only worth $.10.  I realize now that everytime I buy Calls they go to zero, so I will be doing that anytime soon.  

UPDATE 4.30.2012  With a rally in P last week, I took these Calls off for $.15, realizing that some money is better than none.  Moving on to the next trade

Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com

 Lets face it, there is nothing the world can do besides print more money.  Oil is unchanged to a surprise as many correlate the price of oil to the stock market lately.  I am looking to sell Apollo, APOL, Call Spreads into earnings tonight after the bell, but I have not been filled yet.  Later this week, we will get GDP which should give us more movement and I think the favor is the bulls.  Others earnings that I am looking forward to this week are RHT, and RIMM which happen later this week.  Two key levels to the upside in the S&P 500 Futures that I am looking at are 1408 and 1411, after that there is much resistance to the 1440 level.  Have a great day trading everyone.

Chart Glance- GLD retesting resistance at that upward-sloping 200 day moving average. GLD chart is making “higher/ highs” and “lower/ lows.” Technicals indicate that GLD is in the middle leg of up-trending to higher prices and taking out recent 52 week highs ($185.85). Perhaps an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming?

50 DMA ($165.76), 100 DMA ($164.56), 200 DMA ($163.63).

Support 1: $160 Support 2: $151.10

The world’s largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) traded higher today after Mr. Bernanke hints at the “new QE.” Gold prices raged today to $1679 an ounce in pre-market today, up nearly 1% from last weeks close. Insanely high Oil Prices, Weak U.S. housing sales data and the U.S. dollar under heavy selling pressure ignited a rally in precious metals such as Gold.

The EUR/USD shorts are running for the hills as the USD is getting smacked around, trading under the 79.50 level. After Bernanke hints at more QE, Gold and Silver both caught a bid trading higher by more than 1% this morning. Also, WTI Crude is higher today after Friday’s parabolic move. Supposedly, Iranian Oil Supplies came in lower than analysts expected. Today, definitely feels like a “Risk-On” day, but we all know how fast the “risk on” trade can change.

Monday Events:

Singapore IP (Feb): Consensus expects 4.1% Month over Month

Israel CB Meeting: We expect no change from 2.50%.

Argentina GDP (Q4): We expect 7.8% YOY vs consensus of 7.5% (9.3% Q4).

Ben Bernanke and Draghi Speak today.

ES has been trading in a tight 15 point range this morning (1380.50-1395.25). EUR/USD is trading near the highs of the session trading at the 1.3275 level. Crude Oil RAGED higher today moving more than 3 handles from $105.20-$108.25 due to Iranian Export Data. Gold is up 22 Pts or 1.4% for the day trading comfortably above the 1660 level. BATS crashes from $15.75 – $0.04 in minutes.. Circuit Breakers still in tact?  Also, APPLE, YES APPLE, HALTS because of a fat finger mistake. Now I am starting to understand the mind-process and fear of the “Retail-Investor” investing in “Risky Assets.”