Morning Rage 3.1.2012

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Will Apple continue to decouple from broader market weakness? I sure wouldn’t bet against APPLE!!!

Earnings Today

JRCC- Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q4E)- $.04 Quarterly Revenue Estimates (Q4E)- $327 M The outstanding short interest in JRCC has amazingly exceeded 14 million shares. Analysts believe revenue will double from a year earlier to $325 million. NOT one coal stock reported good numbers this quarter. For example, (PCX,ACI,ANR) are all near there 52 week lows after reporting earnings.

Wendy’s- Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q1E)- $.02 Quarterly Revenue(Q1E)- $609M Currently, Wendy’s is trading well above the 50 DMA. The May 2012 $5 Calls are seeing huge Call volume. We will have to wait and listen to the CC and find out how Wendy’s is doing with its interest expense from its short term 500M dollar debt.

By Greg Zimny

Movers and Shakers (SODA) Down $7.27, (15.5%) to $40.03

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Levels to Watch: 50DMA-$38.33, 100 DMA – $35.73, 200 DMA- $44.33.

Support 1-$38.94

Support 2-$35.73

Chart Glance: Another choppy chart, looks like soda got ahead of itself before earnings. Bearish gap down on strong selling volume. Looks to be support between $35-$38 range. Chart suggests more choppy and range bound action to come.

Growth in Soda sales expected in US were higher then estimates. Soda opened 200 new stores in Brazil and is expanding heavily into the Japanese market. CEO stated, “that Q1 looks very STRONG at first glance.” In my opinion, SODA is way oversold and this might be a huge buying opportunity. Soda didn’t miss earnings, they beat, just not as high as analysts estimates. Finally, in the CC, the CEO states, “we are trying to expand into restaurant/commercial divisions.”

By Greg Zimny

Halftime Report for 2.29.2012

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“DON’T PANIC, APPLE IS STILL UP 7 PTS!!!” Says Andrew Keene. Apple up another 1.5%

Earnings tomorrow:

Foot Locker- analysts expect a profit of $.51 a share, up from $.39 for previous year. For the Fiscal year, analysts are expecting earnings of $1.78. Watch the FL’s net income, it has grown the last 3 quarters. Footlocker main competitors are DSW and Shoe Carnival. Finally, don’t forget about the Jeremy Lin effect, haha.

Wendy’s- Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q1E)- $.02 Quarterly Revenue(Q1E)- $609M Currently, Wendy’s is trading well above the 50 DMA. The May 2012 $5 Calls are seeing huge Call volume. We will have to wait and listen to the CC and find out how Wendy’s is doing with its interest expense from its short term 500M dollar debt.

By Greg Zimny

Movers and Shakers (AAPL) Up $7.33 (1.5%) to $542.37

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Levels to Watch: The most important level is $526.20, which was the recent all -time high, when it made a parabolic move and reversed to the downside.

50DMA-$449.99, 100 DMA -$420.73, 200 DMA- $392.73.

Support 1-$500.35

Suppor t2-$483.57

Chart Glance: When stocks like Apple go parabolic, volatility is expected.  AAPL is a great stock to trade, because the swings are so big, but always defining risk vs reward is how we trade at KOTM.  (See Disclaimer)

Apple’s stock market value passed the $500B mark for the first time Tuesday night. Supposedly, the iPad3 will have retina display, Siri voice recognition, and 4G connection. Yesterday, Apple’s market cap surpassed the entire semi index and is very close to being larger than the retail sector. Also, there is a rumor Apple will come out with a 14-inch MacBook air. Finally, Mercedes-Benz said to integrate ipad/iphone software in A-Class Line.

By Greg Zimny

Morning Rage 2.29.2012

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Another important note, Israeli officials stated today, “They will not warn the US before attacking Iran.” Is that the reason why Crude just caught a bid trading at the $107 level. Furthermore, keep an eye out for Bernanke’s (semi-annual testimony) speech. Should be interesting! Also, Sweden and India reports Q4 GDP numbers. Lastly, the 2nd round of LTRO program just took place and the EUR/USD is currently trading near its session lows at $1.343. Fed QE Spending injections are causing investors to want to own hard assets like Silver and Gold. Silver suprasses the $37 mark as central banks are covering their short positions. Gold is trading at a key resistance $1780 level and continues to be the best inflation hedge for those fearing an inflationary environment,

Wednesdays before the bell earnings:
Costco – Reported earnings and revenue numbers that topped wall street expectations. Earned $.90 a share vs $.79 per share estimates. Revenue reported was $23B or up 10%. 52 week range ($69.5-$88.68). Costco CC is expected to take place sometime around the opening bell today.
Joy-Joy Global should meet or beat profits and sales expectations mainly because it is expanding into China’s International Mining Business. Analysts expect Joy to report $1.35 a share, up from $.96 a year ago. Revenue estimates are $1.15B for the quarter and year end revenue of $5.5B.

Liz Claiborne- Quarterly Earnings and estimates Q4E of $.10 Quarterly Revenue Q4E $477M. As of January 31st, there was a significant short float of 30%. In my opinion, any good news regarding earnings could send the shorts running and the stock flying.

By Greg Zimny


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in-the-media Throughout a 10 year market making career at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, Andrew went from a young clerk to an aggressive educated trader. At one point in his career, he was the biggest independent on the floor AAPL options trader in the world. Andrew regularly gives interviews on CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOETV, First Business, Options Profits and other media outlets. Andrew’s views are concise, often contrary to the mainstream, and sometimes controversial. He openly discusses his options trades and keeps his fans updated with his thoughts on the management of those trades.

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