ZAGG TRADE:

Trade: I sold the ZAGG March 9-8 Put Spread and sold the March 11-12 Call Spread for $.50 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if ZAGG Closes between $8.50-$11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if ZAGG Closes at $8.50 or $11.50 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if ZAGG Closes under $8.50 or above $11.50 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.50 for a total of $.50.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 The earnings are after the close today and I put this order in the “Spread Book” for $.50 meaning I am willing to trade it for $.50, but I have NOT got filled yet.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 I actually did not get filled on this spread and I am mad because with volatility getting crushed this spread os worth $.35.  Oh well, on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is now worth $.20 making me upset that I did not get filled.  Oh well, on to the next trade, as LONG as my trading ideas are right, gives me a good feeling.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is worth is still worth $.20

SINA TRADE:

Trade: I bought the SINA March 55-67.5 Strangle and sold the March weekly 55-67.5 Strangle for $1.75 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if SINA closes between $55-$67.50 and the March volatility does not get crushed too bad.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if SINA Stangle Swap is worth $1.75.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if SINA Strangle Swap is worth less than $1.75.  This is a very hard trade to explain, but I basically want to the front month Strangle to be worthless and have Ma
rch volatility not get crushed, so the March strangle is worth more than $1.75.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I got a partial fill in this stock on Friday at $1.75 and now the spread is worth $1.95.  I have a $1.80 bid in the “Spread Book” and will increase my position before earnings after the close.

UPDATE 2.28.2012 Even with stock rallying much more than expected, this spread is still worth $1.85 good for a small winner.  It now has a short delta, so I will leave this trade until Friday.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 With the stock selling off today, this spread is now worth $2.20.  I am offering 40% of my position at $2.30, 40% at $2.50 and 20% at $2.70 trying to lock some profits in.

UPDATE 3.2.2012 The stock market looks weak, but SINA is raging higher, making this spread less valuable.  This spread is now worth $1.00, but I am glad that I took partial profits.  I will be left with LONG the March 67.5 Puts for $1, so I will leave this position on and hope that SINA sells off within the next 2 weeks.

LOW TRADE:

Trade: I sold the LOW March 28-29 Call Spread and 26-25 Put Spread for $.35 total. 
Profitable: I make money on this trade if LOW Closes between $25.65-$28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if LOW Closes at $25.65 or $28.35 by March 16, 2012.
Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if LOW Closes under $25.65 or above $28.35 by March 16, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the amount this spread can be worth $1 minus the amount I sold it for $.35 for a total of $.65.

UPDATE 2.27.2012 I was NOT filled on this position on Friday and even with earnings out, this spread is worth about $.34.  I will not put an order in the “Spread Book,” because I only wanted to trade earnings and moving on to the next trade.

UPDATE 2.29.2012 This spread is worth $.38, but I do not have to worry about it, because I never was filled on the trade.  

UPDATE 3.2.2012 This spread is still worth $.38.

Monday, CTB and PCLN are set to report earnings.

CTB: Quarterly Earnings and estimates of $.39 and Quarterly Revenue of $1B. CTB has a new management team and provide a lot of aftermarket tires. Is a USW deal close?

PCLN: Quarterly Earnings and estimates of $5.02 and Quarterly Revenue of $967M. Is it time to lock in profits? PCLN might give negative forward guidance because of high gas prices. PCLN has been in a 5 point trading range all day.

UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTION:

We have seen a Customer buy 16,900 IVN Mar 20 Calls for $.25. This is 7.6x usual trading volume. This Could be a closing trade because open interest is only 25,000.

A Customer bought 10,000 AA Mar 11 Calls for $.12.

Also, we have seen a customer buy 10,800 Jun 3.5 Puts for $1.05.

By Greg Zimny

Reaction: Was trading as high as $148.02 this morning. It quickly sold off to $140, but bounced from there.  CRM opened at $145.54 on 2.5x average daily volume.

Next Targets to Upside and Downside: CRM has been trading in a huge range between the July 2011 Highs of $160 and traded as low as $98 in January of 2012.

Estimates and Guidance are increasing for Salesforce .  Morgan Stanley predicts continued margin expansion.  Salesforce mentioned in the conference call that it won 100(+) 7 figure deals during the quarter.  Also, Nomura reiterated its “BUY” recommendation on CRM. Nomura expects CRM to exceed revenue and increase its guidance.  CRM’s 50 day moving average is around $113.82 and 200 day moving average is $128.20.  Salesforce mentioned in the conference call that it won 100+ (7 figure) deals during the quarter.  Also, Nomura reiterated its “BUY” recommendation on CRM. Nomura expects CRM to exceed revenue and higher guidance.

Earnings:

Jcp- Quarterly earnings estimates ending(Q4E) $ .67 and $5.5 Billion quarterly revenue estimates ending (Q4E). In my opinion, JCP could miss bad on earnings and its PPS could still rise due to low expectations. Also, I can see JCP beating earnings and selling off due to low guidance that’s already baked in the stock price.
Newmont Mining Corp- Quarterly earnings estimates ending QE4 of $1.26 and quarterly revenue estimates of $2.7 billion. Since Obama has been president it has been, “DRILL, DRILL, DRILL.” With US oil production up 9% and US oil leases higher year over year, it is hard to be short oil mining stocks with WTI Crude at $109.

American International Group (AIG) saw profit in their fourth quarter rise by 77%. This was due to a big tax benefit. Shares are trading up 4.5% to $29.00. This could lift the financial sector as a whole tomorrow. Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) is trading down pretty heavily. The company beat EPS and Revenue estimates but is still getting smacked. Stock is currently down 6.85% to $82.41. Good old Crocs Inc. (CROX) is getting hammered as well; this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Only in America can the most hideous pair of clogs sell. Stock down 9.85% to $18.25 as CROX issued poor Quarter 1 guidance. The SPY closed at $136.70 after putting in a low at exactly $135.50. The trend of morning sell offs and afternoon buy programs stills seems to be the status quo for 2012. The SPY is up 7.5% for the year so far.

Written by Cameron Patrick

@Cam_Patrick