Cam at the Close 2.22.12

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MGM Resorts (MGM) reported a loss of $0.23 cents per share against consensus of $0.19. The stock saw continued selling and closed at $13.73. I would really watch this name if the market gets weak because now that earnings are out of the way, I still think there is room to swing this on the downside. I remain firm in my $12.40 target for MGM. Hewlett-Packard released guidance after hours that was short from what analysts were expecting. This was due to weak PC group sales. This really should not be a surprise to anyone. This name could see some trading action tomorrow. Stock is currently down 1.85% to $28.80 in after-hours trading. Netflix was unloved today, trading down 5 points to $112.40. But something really important to note is that NFLX filled the gap between $112 and $108. Netflix could really go either way here in my opinion but Momentum, MacD and RSI are starting to display signs of bearish divergence. Deckers (DECK), Crocs (CROX), E Commerce China (DANG), First Solar (FSLR), Foster Wheeler AG (FWLT), GAP (GPS), Molycorp (MCP), Rubicon Technologies (RBCN), (CRM) and SandRidge Energy (SD) ALL REPORT TOMORROW. This will be a big day. Anything positive from DANG will lift the likes of RENN, BORN and YOKU, while FSLR will affect the solars. Some pin action names to watch off FSLR earnings would be SPWR, ASTI, STP, YGE and TSL. AVL and TC could really move off MCP earnings as well. AVL is forming a nice base around the $2.90 area as well as a little wedge. This name looks poised to run.
Written by Cameron Patrick

Halftime Report for 2.22.2012

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HPQ is currently trading near its 52 week highs and is getting ready to report after the close today. HPQ Quarterly Earnings and estimates (Q4E)- $.87 and Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)- $30.7B. HPQ has a 61% positive surprise history. Should be interesting to see how HPQ trades post report as Dell fell after earnings.

MGM posted a profit of $3.1B vs last year’s profit of $1.44B. Revenue rose 55% or $2.3B as MGM made more from entertainment and the consumer spending more. MGM resorts said its US properties improved occupancy and average daily room rate.


We have seen a Customer buy FCEL July 2 Calls for $.25. I also bought them due to the volume and massive move of the FCEL stock.

We have seen a huge seller of MS Apr 22 Calls for $.25. As Andrew Keene reported on Bloomberg.. He thinks these are institutions repositioning. I believe this is a closing trade due to the open interest in MS Calls.

By Greg Zimny

Morning Rage 2.22.2012

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The ES futures are trading around key ES support level, 1250 this morning. We have seen a drastic increase in NYSE volume on S&P down days.

It will be a quiet day for US economic events. At 4:15 P.M ET 10 year treasury notes and Federal Fund rates. Also, we will get the latest US housing data number. Obama administration is getting ready to update us all on the corporate tax-rate plan.


DECK: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q4E)- $3.13 Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)-$562M. Deckers offer luxury shoes such as UGGs and multiple types of UGG accessories. Deckers Management reiterated their guidance after last quarter and stated, “pre- spring orders looking strong.” Expect a big move in one direction or another.

GPS: Quarterly Earnings and Estimates (Q4E)- $.42 Quarterly Revenue(Q4E)- $4.3B. Despite Gaps annual sales growth of $-1.75 for the last five years, could Gap miss analysts expectations and still run like Abercrombie is doing? Also, Gap is expanding into high-growth markets such as China, opening 30 new stores.

Also in the earnings spotlight: HPQ, Goodrich Petroleum, and TJX.

By: Greg Zimny

Cam at the Close 2.21.12

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EU finance ministers approved a $173 billion package for the struggling nation. GLD closed up 2.18% to $171.02 while SLV closed up 3.47% to $33.40. Oil also spiked higher due to the news on Greece. Spot crude closed up 2.20% to $105.50. The 2x long oil fund UCO broke through a key $45 resistance level and closed at $46.17. Like I said earlier last week, MGM Resorts (MGM) was to be put on watch for a breakdown. Stock broke its steep trend line at $14.60 and traded down sharply after. Boyd Gaming (BYD) reported earnings in pre-market today and reported poor results. BYD is a smaller casino operator than MGM, LVS or WYNN but it has holdings in Las Vegas. MGM reports earnings tomorrow and is expected to report a loss of $0.19 per share on revenues of $2.17 billion. MGM closed down 3.38% to $14.17. With earnings tomorrow, swinging this name makes it difficult because there is no real edge. MGM closed right on its 20-dma but $12.40 would be my first downside target. This could easily be reached with an earnings catalyst. The street will focus more on MGM’s business operations in China, specifically Macau. Casinos in Macau have been the main revenue drivers for MGM, WYNN and LVS. Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD) is starting to display signs of weakness again. Stock fell 6.58% to $50.94. Dell reported earnings after the bell and is down over 4% in after hours trading despite its strong results. Almost Family (AFM), DryShips (DRYS), Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU) and Yandex (YNDX) all report earnings tomorrow. DRYS has seen quite a meteoric rise and has made a short-term top at $3.82. Pay attention to this one tomorrow. The stock is up over 50% in 12 trading days and the breakdown could be epic.

Written by Cameron Patrick