Following the close, Chipotle (CMG) reported EPS of $1.97, higher than the $1.93 estimates. CMG is higher by 1.6% in after-hours trading, erasing losses from today’s trading session. Capital One (COF) reported better-than-expected EPS as well, showing quarterly earnings of $1.56. COF is indicated 2% higher after hours. Microsoft (MSFT) beat expectations as well, sending that stock 2.9% higher after hours.
Tomorrow might be a slow day on the street – though earnings reports from GE, McDonald’s (MCD), and Schlumberger (SLB) might spice things up a bit.
In the agriculture sector, Corn and Wheat futures saw buying – gaining 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively.
Once again, we are skeptical that there will be much action this afternoon. The market appears to be consolidating, with resistance ahead of 1,400 on the S&P futures. With the way things are looking, the market may wait until earnings season is over before its next move. Check out Alex’s view of the S&P technicals here.
U.S. Equity markets are higher with the DJIA and S&P front-month futures gaining 0.25% and NASDAQ futures higher by 0.5%. Earnings reports continue to be solid. Last night, YUM Brands! (YUM), VMWare (VMW), eBay (EBAY), American Express (AXP), F5 Networks (FFIV), Marriott (MAR), and Qualcomm (QCOM) were among the companies that reported to beat earnings expectations. As a result, VMW’s price target was upgraded this morning at three houses, and FFIV’s rating was upgraded at two houses. VMW is up 2.4%, while FFIV gained 7% in premarket trade.
Crude Oil futures are flat after sharp declines yesterday. An interesting piece in the WSJ notes that while Gasoline futures have come down 6.3%, prices at the pump have only dropped 0.5%. But, the WSJ says, some traders are putting a top on Gasoline futures … I’d wait until CNBC confirms the top before we are definitely in for another rally.
Not much going on in currency markets. EUR/USD is pressured, down almost 100-pips from its session highs. But, the pair is trading in the very familiar 1.3075-1.31 area. We continue to monitor the currency for a breakout of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart. That would mean prices would have to close below 1.3055 or above 1.32 before it indicates a sell or buy, respectively.
As for data, weekly jobless claims were released at 8:30 a.m. ET, showing a seasonally adjusted 386,000 people filed to receive initial unemployment benefits last week. There is a lot of talk about the seasonality factors that are happening with the Labor Department’s data, so the fact that this is higher-than-expected is unlikely to weigh markets down. At 10:30 a.m. ET, traders will look at the weekly Natural Gas inventory data for some volatility there. Hint: Don’t buy Natural Gas. Futures are down another 0.6% today, marking another 2.1% decline this week.
In currency markets, EUR/USD erased early losses to close above the 1.31 figure. USD/JPY moved higher, gaining to 81.25. Gold fell 0.5%, closing below $1,650 per ounce.
Tonight, all eyes turn to Spain to see how well their auction performs. Seems to be a simple formula for tomorrow: better-than-expected results = higher equities; worse-than-expected = lower equities. Now, what happens if the results are as expected… that’s the real question.
So in order to share the conclusions of my analysis I wanted to also share my process so our followers can learn how I got there as well. Starting with the templates that I always leave as a reference on my desk this is the pattern that I am seeing in the market.
So starting with the Late July 2011 High of 1350 I measured down to the major swing low of Early October and labeled it X-A.
I saw the first measurement that happens exactly in these harmonic patterns which is a B retracement of 78.6 of the Length of X-A.
It is always good to see this retracement hit exactly because the next measurement of C was also surprisingly exact as well. Looking at the Length of A(October swing low) to Nov Swing High B, C pulled back exactly 6.18%! This is a very good secondary measurement indicating that the next measurement of D will have VERY important potential trend reversal points.
Using now two differnt harmonic View points (X-A) and (B-C) with very exact harmonic movements in regards to the Fibonbacci and Harmonic series, The D point is then projected higher. So the first projection is 1.27% above X, using X-A as the base measurement and this is strengthened as a possible turning point when it lines up close to 2.00 or 1.618 projection higher from the B-C base measurement. As indicated with the green arrow on the chart you can clearly see that the April high hit exactly on the 1.27(x-a) and 2.00(B-C). A very good set up for a trade that I missed. But I dont think it was the final high.
The next level higher noted as D* has a better projection of a possible final D turning point. D* is a perfect 1.414 of X-A and 2.24 of B-C. Addtionally D** fits even better as a potential turning point for a few reasons. First, this level lines up with two Phi extensions from the X-A and B-C base points. I have found in Fibonacci measurements that have .618 and derivatives or extensions of are the most important points to pay attention two. This is a Sacred Number and there are many scientific disciplines that prove this ratio has universal importance in world around us. Additionally I am reserving this zone as denoted in red, as the final top area because it also sits slightly below the 2007 high and If you measure the 2000 -2003 as well as the 2007 to 2009 both have .886 retracements that lie in this box at 1483 and 1474 respectively so from multiple using multiple base measurements the stars are aligning so to speak at this zone being a very highly probability major turning point for the over all market. my year end target of 1483 is still in play and I have also pinpointed two exact turning points that I think will be very significant: 1463 & 1518.
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