Earnings Trade of the Day 4.18.2012

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FFIV:
Trade: Selling the FFIV April 120-115 Put Spread for $1.56.  I sold the April 120 Puts for $3.50 and bought the April 115 Puts for $1.94.
Profitable: I make money on this trade if FFIV closes above $118.44 by April 20, 2012.
Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if FFIV closes at $118.44 by April 20, 2012.
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if FFIV closes under $118.44 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread can be worth $5 minus the Price I sold it for $1.56 for a total of $3.44.  

UPDATE 4.23.2012 I had this position on and bought back my short Put Spread on Thrusday for $.04.  Another big winner at KOTM.

MS:
Trade: Buying the MS APRIL 18-19 Call Spread and Selling the 17-16 Put Spread for $.15 total
Profitable: I make money on this trade if MS closes above $18.15 by April 20, 2012.
Break-Even: I breakeven on this trade if MS closes at $18.15 by April 20, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if MS closes under $18.15 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread can be worth $1 plus the Price I bought it for $.15 for a total of $1.15.

UPDATE 4.23.2012  As MS rallied over the $18 level, I took this Spread off for $.32 for a nice double and moving to the next trade.

EBAY:
Trade: Selling the EBAY April 37-38 Call Spread and April 35-34 Put Spread for $.44 total.
Profitable: I make money on this trade if EBAY closes between $34.56-$37.44 by April 20, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if EBAY closes at $34.56 or $37.44 by April 20, 2012. 
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if EBAY closes under $34.56 or above $37.44 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can lose is the Price the spread can be worth $1 minus the price I sold it for $.44 for a total of $.56 

UPDATE 4.23.2012 I was offering this Spread in the book, but never got filled.  The Spread would have achieved full value or $1


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Halftime Report for 4.18.2012

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Following news overnight that Warren Buffet was diagnosed with an early form of cancer, Berkshire (BRK.A) shares are down 1.3% – not something that is indicative of any concern among investors. IBM is down 2.9% after reporting earnings last night, while Intel (INTC) has lost 1.7%. Haliburton (HAL) gained 4.4% following its earnings report.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shareholders are benefiting from rumors on additional Macao properties, up 5% at $131.00. 

Morning Rage 4.18.2012

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This morning, in earnings news, Abbott Labs (ABT) reported EPS of $1.03, 3 cents above expectations; BlackRock (BLK) reported EPS of $3.16 versus $3.02 expectations; PNC reported EPS that is 1 cent higher than expectations; and Southwest Bancorp beat the street with a $0.21 EPS versus expectations of a $0.01 quarterly loss.

Crude Oil futures are lower by 0.5% this morning, while Natural Gas futures are marginally higher. At 10:30 a.m. ET this morning, the Department of Energy will release the weekly report on Crude inventories. Gold is also lower by 0.5%, down $8.80 to $1,642.30.

In currency markets, EUR/USD is under pressure, trading down 60 pips to 1.3065. A close below the Ichimoku Cloud at 1.3055 could inspire further losses in sessions ahead. The US$ is also higher against JPY, which spiked to 81.57 before trading at 81.35 currently. 

Meadows on the Markets 4.17.2012

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After the bell, we will see earnings reports from IBM, Intel (INTC), CSX, and Yahoo! (YHOO). Following them tomorrow morning are Abbott Labs (ABT), Bank of NY (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Haliburton (HAL), and PNC. 

Crude Oil futures gained sharply ahead of inventory numbers tomorrow afternon. The price of a barrel rose 1.3% to $104.25. Natural Gas futures, which will see its own inventory numbers on Thursday, fell to its lowest level at $1.9530. Traders continue to point to a $1.55 level as a break-even point for producers, saying that until you see serious production cuts, prices could continue to tumble. 

The US$ fell marginally in Tuesday trade, despite the renewed risk appetite. JPY saw the brunt of the losses, falling 0.5% against the dollar. The 30-year bond fell 0.3%, while the 10-year note dropped 0.2%. 

Earnings Trade of the Day 4.17.2012

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IBM:
Trade: Buying the IBM April 210-215 Call Spread for $1.00.  I bought the April 210 Calls for $1.45 and sold the April 215 Calls for $.45.
Profitable: I make money on this trade if IBM closes above $211 by April 20, 2012.
Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if IBM closes at $211 by April 20, 2012.
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if IBM closes under $211 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread, $1.00.  

UPDATED 4.23.2012  I had this Spread on and it went out worthless on Friday, time to move to the next trade.

CREE:
Trade: Buying the CREE April 30-28 Put Spread for $.38
Profitable: I make money on this trade if CREE closes below $29.62 by April 20, 2012.
Break-Even: I breakeven on this trade if CREE closes at $29.62 by April 20, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if CREE closes about $29.62 by April 20, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread, $.38

UPDATED 4.23.2012 I did not have this trade on and if traded properly against stock it could have a nice winner, but it did expire worthless.  

URI:
Trade: Buying the URI April 41-44-47 Call Fly for $.75.  I bought the April 41 and April 47 Calls and sold twice as many of the April 44 Calls.
Profitable: I make money on this trade if URI closes between $41.75-$46.25 by April 20, 2012.
Break-even: I break-even on this trade if URI closes at $41.75 or $46.25 by April 20, 2012. 
Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if URI closes under $41.75 or above $46.25 by April 20, 2012. 

UPDATED 4.23.2012  With URI selling off on Friday, this Spread I had on and expired worth $1.85 for a nice winner.

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Halftime Report for 4.17.2012

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Crude Oil is also sharply higher, up 1.4%, while its counterpart in the oil patch – Natural Gas – is down 2.5% to $1.966. Natural Gas is by far the largest losing of the main futures markets, with the next closest – coffee – down just 0.6%.

After-the-bell earnings are not yet on the radar, but may become towards the end of the trading day. IBM, Intel (INTC), and Yahoo! (YHOO) are the major plays there. IBM has beat expectations by an average of 1.8% over the past four trailing quarters. So, we should expect another strong number there. We’ll really be looking at YHOO, with the potential to move the most. The stock is in a beaten up, built up pattern that could see good volatility. Should be fun.

Trade of The Day (CEDC) 4.17.2012

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Break-even:  I breakeven on this trade if CEDC closes at $4 by April 20, 2012 and at $3.65 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable: I lose money on this trade if CEDC closes under $4 by April 20, 2012 and above $3.65 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can lose on this trade is the Price of the Spread, $.35.  

Reason I Like This Trade:  I like selling front month premium and buying back month premium with only a few days to go until expiration. In this strategy, I will make money as long as CEDC does not rip higher between now and Friday, because the April options will decay faster than the May options.  

UPDATED 4.23.2012  On Friday, I announced in the LIVE trading room that I sold my May 4 Puts for $.60 and the April Puts expired worthless, so I turned $.35 into $.60 for another HUGE winner at KOTM.

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