The March to 1500 by Ben Hoben

However, with the unpleasantries out of the way, there seems to be nothing stopping this market and I don’t see that changing in the near future. I think we are on a march towards 1500.
I hate to call it a prediction rather it’s more of a gut feeling. The bears continue to give all the reasons why we are too high but none of that really seems to matter right now. The market just wants to go up.
It really wouldn’t surprise me to see the S&P take out its all time closing high of around 1565 that was set back in October of 2007. That’s not to say we don’t have some pullbacks along the way or maybe some consolidation periods but it’s beginning to look more and more like this is where we are heading.

If this seems like a stretch just realize that from the current 1370’s level it would only take about a 15% move to get us there. That kind of move isn’t unreasonable especially if the economic news continues to surprise.

There are a lot of things out there for us to be wary of including Iran, a still high unemployment rate, an election, and high food/energy prices. But at this moment in time you can find ways to discount all of these. Iran has been and always will be a saber rattler. Nothing is new here. Unemployment is high but it seems to be trending downwards. Oil is a concern but all we have to do is formulate a discussion on natural gas or a release from the SPR and we can see oil come down. And as far as the election goes, does it really matter which of these clowns is in charge? We will most likely have a gridlocked government and another four years of more of the same.

As long as all the economic data points continue to remain mostly positive, the general consensus will continue to be that based on these numbers the market is undervalued and at the worst fairly valued. This makes taking out 1500 a reality and taking out the all time highs well within reach.

I’ve been cautious and have held at least 30% in cash during this rally. I will continue to do so but I’m feeling more comfortable owning stocks through all of this. I definitely think there are darker days ahead for the markets and the economy, just not right now.