Halftime Report for 3.28.2012

 Helping prices move lower, a report in the FT suggesting the U.S., Japan, U.K., and France are in talks to release supply to the market.  We are also seeing selling pressure in overseas commodity-based stocks, including VALE, PBR, and X.

In equities, the DJIA is pushing triple-digit losses at the moment, down 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices have shed 0.8%.  Apple (AAPL) is around the flat-line for the day after dipping into negative territory early in the session.  

Data early in the session set a negative tone for the day.  February headline durable goods orders gained 2.2%, below the 3% consensus figures.  Overseas, UK economic growth contracted by 0.3% in Q4.

Morning Rage 3.28.2012

This might be the time to either sell your Gold position or fade the GS trade. GS recommends buying the Dec-12 Comex Gold OTM Futures. WTI is under heavy selling pressure following last night’s build in oil reserves shown by the API data. French press reported that France had made contact with the UK/US regarding the release of emergency oil stocks like ZAZA (previous symbol TRGL).

US economic data includes durable goods orders and the weekly DOE oil inventory due later today.

Keene at the Close 3.27.2012

 Today, might have been a fake-out shake-out and shaking out some weak bulls.  I remain bullish and think the market will trade higher, but with so many bullish traders into quarter end, could we sell-off?

In other news, oh yeah, AAPL hitting another all time high with strong stocks such as PM and YUM getting stronger by the day.  I continue look for any and all pullbacks to get long there stocks.  Have a great night and remember you gotta be in it to win in.

Andrew Keene KeeneOnTheMarket.com

Morning Rage 3.27.2012

Crude Oil was one of the only commodities that showed weakness yesterday in trading. Perhaps Geo-Risk Premium is coming out Crude Oil as Syria’s and Iran’s hostile environment is calming down a little and Crude Speculators are taking profits now and not before the next big Crude Sell off. Gold is approaching $1,700/oz after yesterday’s Bernanke hints at the new “QE” and today’s urging by the OECD to increase the Euro-zones ‘firewall’ by another $1.3 trillion. Gold is above 200 day moving average (simple) at $1,687/oz after yesterday’s biggest daily gain since January 2012. The gains came after Ben Bernanke warned investors of the risks to the fragile US economic recovery and signalled the Fed would keep interest rates low – aka buy gold for an inflation hedge.

Economic Events:

US Consumer Confidence (Mar).

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan).

Turkey CB Meeting and Hungary CB Meeting.

Ben Bernanke Lecture

Italian Bond Auction (2/10yr)

Keene at the Close 3.26.2012

Cameron Closing Bell NYSEIt is un-American to be short the stock market.  I talk about this all the time and my goal is to make the most amount of money possible, and every dip should be and has been bought.  Yes, every couple of weeks we shake the week hands out, but the the fact is america is the best house in a bad neighborhood.  Today the stock market took out all 3 of my upside targets in the S&P 500 futures of 1400, 1408, then 1411 and closed at the highs of the year at 1415.  I think more window dressing continues and will rally for the rest of the week.  After that, earnings come into play and should be strong, so it’s time to jump on this train before it’s too late.

Trade of the Day (P) 3.26.2012

Break-even: I break-even on this trade if P closes at $11.70 by May 18, 2012.

Unprofitable: This trade is unprofitable if P closes under $11.70 by May 18, 2012.  The most I can I can lose is the $.70 that I paid for the Calls.

Reason I Like This Trade: When P was trading $10.46, I saw a customer buy 2439 Pandora May 11 Calls for $.70.  I then saw more unsual options activity and paper sell May 11 Puts and April 10 Puts.  I knew that I wanted to get LONG, but I always like to define my risk vs reward so I bought Calls since I think the stock will move higher. 

UPDATE 4.9.2012 These Calls are currently worth $.25 and this trade has not worked out very well.  Since I know I can only lose $.25 more cents I will leave these Calls on.

UPDATE 4.11.2012 These Calls have now turned into a lottery ticket and another stock where I have purchased Calls and have not worked out very well.  I will look to take this trade off with any rally in Pandora.  

UPDATE 4.23.2012  Another worthless Calls as these Calls are only worth $.10.  I realize now that everytime I buy Calls they go to zero, so I will be doing that anytime soon.  

UPDATE 4.30.2012  With a rally in P last week, I took these Calls off for $.15, realizing that some money is better than none.  Moving on to the next trade

Read more about closes by www.keeneonthemarket.com

Halftime Report for 3.26.2012

 Lets face it, there is nothing the world can do besides print more money.  Oil is unchanged to a surprise as many correlate the price of oil to the stock market lately.  I am looking to sell Apollo, APOL, Call Spreads into earnings tonight after the bell, but I have not been filled yet.  Later this week, we will get GDP which should give us more movement and I think the favor is the bulls.  Others earnings that I am looking forward to this week are RHT, and RIMM which happen later this week.  Two key levels to the upside in the S&P 500 Futures that I am looking at are 1408 and 1411, after that there is much resistance to the 1440 level.  Have a great day trading everyone.